A Piecewise Grey System Model for Study the Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on Karst Hydrological Processes
A Piecewise Grey System Model for Study the Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on Karst Hydrological Processes
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-012-0231-x
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Y. Hao;Bibo Cao;Xiang Chen;Jian Yin;R. Sun;T. Yeh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Hao;Bibo Cao;Xiang Chen;Jian Yin;R. Sun;T. Yeh
可持续地下水开发必须依赖于对水文过程的良好理解，特别是在人类活动影响下的水文过程。应用灰色系统模型分段分析人类活动对水文过程的影响。降水和泉水流量的时间序列被分为三个时间段，根据是否变化是由于气候变化：发展前阶段，过渡阶段，新的平衡阶段。运用灰色系统模型对前期发展阶段和新平衡阶段的水文过程进行了模拟。通过模型结果的比较，我们可以量化人类活动对水文过程的影响。我们将该模型应用于中国柳林温泉。结果表明，从发育前期到新的平衡期，泉流量对降水的水力响应时间在1年到4年之间。结果表明，人类活动减缓了地下水的流动。柳林泉流量的GM（1，N）模型表明，降水对泉流量的驱动系数由开发前的0.012272下降到新平衡期的0.007753，地下水补给能力下降了36.82%.柳林泉的人类活动极大地改变了地下水系统。分段灰色系统模型是一种稳健的水文过程模拟方法。
Sustainable groundwater development must rely on a good understanding of hydrological processes, especially under effects of anthropogenic activities. This paper develops a piecewise analysis based on grey system model for study effects of anthropogenic activities on hydrological processes. The time series of precipitation and spring discharge were segmented into three time periods depending on whether variations are due to climate variation: the predevelopment stage, the transition stage, and the new equilibrium stage. Then we modeled hydrological process of the predevelopment stage and new equilibrium stage by the grey system model. By comparing the model results, we can quantify the effects of human activities on hydrological processes. We applied the model to Liulin Springs China. The results indicated that the hydraulic response time of the spring discharge to precipitation from the predevelopment stage to the new equilibrium stage, ranges from less than 1 year to up to 4 years. The results revealed that human activities slow the groundwater flow. GM (1,N) models of Liulin Springs discharge showed that the driving coefficients of precipitation to the spring discharge decreased from 0.012272 in the predevelopment stage to 0.007753 in the new equilibrium stage, which means that groundwater recharge ability has reduced about 36.82 %. Human activities in Liulin Springs have drastically changed the groundwater system. Piecewise grey system model is a robust method for hydrological process simulation.