NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
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20 世纪末 NAO 外部强迫的可预测性
DOI：
10.1038/s41612-021-00177-8
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Murphy, Lisa N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klavans, Jeremy M.;Cane, Mark A.;Clement, Amy C.;Murphy, Lisa N.
北大西洋涛动（NAO）在近十年时间尺度的气候模式中是可预测的。预测技能来自海洋初始化，它可以捕获气候系统内部的变化，并来自外部辐射强迫。在这里，我们表明，预测技能的NAO在一个非常大的未初始化的多模型合奏是相称的与以前报道的技能，从一个国家的最先进的初始化预测系统。未初始化的合奏和初始化的预测系统产生类似的技能水平为北方欧洲降水和北大西洋SST。在一个非常大的集合中识别这些可预测的成分成为可能，证实了先前在初始化和未初始化的气候模式中识别的错误的低信噪比。虽然这里的结果意味着，外部辐射强迫是NAO的预测技能的主要来源，他们也表明，海洋初始化可能是重要的特定NAO事件（20世纪90年代中期强正NAO），如前所述，在某些海洋区域，如副极地北大西洋。总之，我们认为，改善气候模式对外部辐射强迫的响应可能有助于解决气候模式中已知的信噪比误差。
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models.
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北大西洋年代际可预测性的深渊起源
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Yeager, Stephen
通讯作者：
Yeager, Stephen
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Watanabe, Masahiro;Tatebe, Hiroaki
通讯作者：
Tatebe, Hiroaki
可变的外部强迫掩盖了 NAO 与北大西洋数十年海温变化之间的微弱关系
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Klavans, Jeremy M.;Clement, Amy C.;Cane, Mark A.
通讯作者：
Cane, Mark A.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
L. Murphy;J. Klavans;A. Clement;M. Cane
通讯作者：
L. Murphy;J. Klavans;A. Clement;M. Cane
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
D. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;R. Eade;P. Athanasiadis;A. Bellucci;I. Bethke;R. Bilbao;L. Borchert;L. Caron;F. Counillon;G. Danabasoglu;T. Delworth;F. Doblas-Reyes;N. Dunstone;V. Estella-Perez;S. Flavoni;L. Hermanson;N. Keenlyside;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;W. Merryfield;J. Mignot;T. Mochizuki;K. Modali;P. Monerie;W. Müller;D. Nicolì;P. Ortega;K. Pankatz;H. Pohlmann;J. Robson;P. Ruggieri;R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;D. Swingedouw;Y. Wang;S. Wild;S. Yeager;X. Yang;L. Zhang
通讯作者：
D. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;R. Eade;P. Athanasiadis;A. Bellucci;I. Bethke;R. Bilbao;L. Borchert;L. Caron;F. Counillon;G. Danabasoglu;T. Delworth;F. Doblas-Reyes;N. Dunstone;V. Estella-Perez;S. Flavoni;L. Hermanson;N. Keenlyside;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;W. Merryfield;J. Mignot;T. Mochizuki;K. Modali;P. Monerie;W. Müller;D. Nicolì;P. Ortega;K. Pankatz;H. Pohlmann;J. Robson;P. Ruggieri;R. Sospedra‐Alfonso;D. Swingedouw;Y. Wang;S. Wild;S. Yeager;X. Yang;L. Zhang