Short lead-time hydrologic ensemble forecasts from numerical weather prediction model ensembles.
Short lead-time hydrologic ensemble forecasts from numerical weather prediction model ensembles.
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DOI：
10.1061/41114(371)237
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发表时间：
2010-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
T. Adams;J. Ostrowski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Adams;J. Ostrowski
美国国家气象局（NWS）河流预报中心（rfc）使用历史降水和温度作为水文预报集合的强迫数据，制作了多年的水文预报集合。这对于超过30天的长交付周期的合奏效果很好。然而，至少在美国东部，人们对较短的预期集合更感兴趣，特别是在3到7天的时间内，它传达了降水和温度预报的不确定性直接导致的水文预报的不确定性。本文将展示数值天气预报（NWP）模式集合作为NWS河流预报系统（NWSRFS）集合流流量预测（ESP）系统中水文模式的强迫。这种方法使产生结合了大气模式的技巧和不确定性的概率水文预报成为可能。虽然直接使用气象综合资料存在重大问题，包括偏差、现有数据的空间分辨率以及只处理所有不确定性来源的一部分，但该方法允许在目前几乎没有可用的概率水文指导的时间范围内生成信息。本文介绍了三个NWS rfc之间的联合项目的描述，该项目包括来自各种气象模式集合的集合预报。这些包括美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）、NWS国家环境预测中心（NCEP）、全球集合预报系统（GEFS）和短期集合预报系统（SREF）。本文简要概述了将传入的网格集成转换为必要的水文输入的程序，并讨论了正在产生的各种潜在产品。我们提出了一个最近的案例研究作为一个代表性的例子。最后，讨论了该项目如何适应未来的集合预报工作，包括国家气象局水文发展办公室（OHD）、水文实验室、水文集合预报系统（HEFS）。
U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) have produced hydrologic forecast ensembles for many years using historical precipitation and temperature as the forcing data for the ensembles. This has worked well for long lead-time ensembles of greater than thirty days. However, at least in the eastern United States, there is more interest in shorter lead-time ensembles, particularly in the period of three to seven days that convey hydrologic forecast uncertainty resulting directly from the uncertainties in precipitation and temperature forecasts. This paper will demonstrate the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ensembles as the forcing for hydrologic models within the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system. This approach makes it possible to produce probabilistic hydrologic forecasts that incorporate the skill and uncertainty of atmospheric models. While there are significant issues in directly using the meteorological ensembles, including biases, spatial resolution of the available data, and treatment of only a portion of all uncertainty sources, the approach allows for the generation of information for a time frame at which there is little current probabilistic hydrologic guidance available. This paper presents a description of a joint project among three NWS RFCs to incorporate ensemble forecasts from a variety of meteorological model ensembles. These include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF). The paper briefly outlines procedures to convert the incoming gridded ensembles into the necessary hydrologic inputs and discusses a variety of potential products that are being generated. We present a recent case study as a representative example. Finally, there is a discussion on how this project fits in with future ensemble forecast work including the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD), Hydrology Laboratory, Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS).