Multiple model triangulation to identify factors associated with lameness in British sheep flocks.
Multiple model triangulation to identify factors associated with lameness in British sheep flocks.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105395
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发表时间：
2021-08
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Green LE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lewis KE;Green MJ;Witt J;Green LE
多模型三角测量识别可能是真阳性的变量。三角测量增加了在实践中推荐管理的信心。对母羊进行有效的管理可以降低母羊和羔羊跛行的发生率。当解释变量的数量相对于观察数量而言很大时，识别与结果相关的因素可能具有挑战性。多模型三角测量，其中来自几个模型类型的结果相结合，提高了识别真正的预测变量的可能性。本研究的目的是使用三角测量法来确定可能与英国羊群跛行患病率真正相关的协变量。数据是通过2018年向英国3200名养羊农民发送的问卷收集的。有效应答率为14.1%。母羊跛行的几何平均患病率为1.4%（95% CI 1.2−1.7），羔羊为0.6%（95% CI 0.5−0.9），然而，约60%的羊群母羊跛行患病率>2%。四种模型类型进行了研究，两个广义线性模型（负二项和准泊松）建立逐步选择，和两个弹性网络模型（泊松分布和高斯分布）细化选择稳定性估计。三角形协变量是在三个或所有四个模型中选择的那些-母羊10个，羔羊12个。与不进行足部修剪相比，在常规足部修剪期间，母羊跛行的患病率更高，与5 - 100%的足部出血相关;与不进行足部沐浴相比，为羊群进行足部沐浴以治疗严重的蹄病（SFR），以及在足部沐浴中始终使用福尔马林;与不使用FootVax ™相比，使用FootVax™ <1年;与总是使用FootVax™相比，从未将新绵羊或返回农场的绵羊与总是使用FootVax ™相比>3周。与未接种疫苗相比，接种FootVax™疫苗>5年，泥炭土与无泥炭土相比，以及无跛行母羊治疗，母羊跛行患病率较低。羔羊跛行患病率较高与常规剪足期间5 - 100%的足部出血相关，总是用SFR剪足母羊，不知情地选择替代母羊从母羊从来没有跛脚相比，总是，替代羊购买和国产相比，只有国产，与0-3天相比，在识别跛行后>3天治疗羔羊，并且与根本不洗脚相比，给羊群洗脚以治疗趾间皮炎。羔羊跛行的患病率较低与泥炭土壤、苏格兰与英格兰的羊群、海拔>230 - 500 m与≤230 m、从未使用抗生素注射治疗SFR羔羊与总是使用抗生素注射治疗SFR羔羊以及没有跛行羔羊治疗有关。我们得出结论，三角测量确定了农民实施的可靠管理措施，以尽量减少绵羊跛行。
Multiple model triangulation identifies variables that are likely true positives. Triangulation increases confidence in which managements to recommend in practice. Effective management of ewes can lower prevalence of lameness in ewes and lambs. Identification of factors associated with an outcome can be challenging when the number of explanatory variables is large in relation to the number of observations. Multiple model triangulation, where results from several model types are combined, improves the likelihood of identifying true predictor variables. The aim of this study was to use triangulation to identify covariates likely to be truly associated with the prevalence of lameness in sheep flocks in Great Britain. Data were collected using a questionnaire sent to 3200 sheep farmers in Great Britain in 2018. The useable response rate was 14.1 %. The geometric mean prevalence of lameness was 1.4 % (95 % CI 1.2−1.7) for ewes, and 0.6 % (95 % CI 0.5−0.9) for lambs, however, approximately 60 % flocks had >2% prevalence of lameness in ewes. Four model types were investigated, two generalised linear models (negative binomial and quasi-Poisson) built using stepwise selection, and two elastic net models (Poisson and Gaussian distributions) refined with selection stability estimation. Triangulated covariates were those selected in three or all four models – 10 for ewes and 12 for lambs. Higher prevalence of lameness in ewes was associated with 5−100% feet bleeding during routine foot trimming compared with not foot trimming, footbathing the flock to treat severe footrot (SFR) and always using formalin in footbaths, both compared with not footbathing, using FootVax™ for <1 year compared with not using FootVax™, and never quarantining new or returning sheep to the farm for >3 weeks compared with always. Lower prevalence of lameness in ewes was associated with vaccinating with FootVax™ for >5 years compared with not vaccinating, peat soil compared with no peat soil, and having no lame ewes to treat. Higher prevalence of lameness in lambs was associated with 5−100% feet bleeding during routine foot trimming, always foot trimming ewes with SFR, not knowingly selecting replacement ewes from ewes that were never lame compared with always, replacement sheep purchased and homebred compared with only homebred, treating lambs >3 days after recognition of lameness compared with 0-3 days and footbathing the flock to treat interdigital dermatitis compared with not footbathing at all. Lower prevalence of lameness in lambs was associated with peat soil, flocks in Scotland versus England, an altitude of >230−500 m compared with ≤230 m, never using antibiotic injection to treat lambs with SFR compared with always, and having no lame lambs to treat. We conclude triangulation identified reliable management practices for farmers to implement to minimise lameness in sheep.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Lewis KE;Green LE
通讯作者：
Green LE
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Austin, PC;Tu, JV
通讯作者：
Tu, JV
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Lima, Eliana;Green, Martin;Kaler, Jasmeet
通讯作者：
Kaler, Jasmeet
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Angell, J. W.;Duncan, J. S.;Grove-White, D. H.
通讯作者：
Grove-White, D. H.
DOI：
10.1002/bimj.201700067
发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift
影响因子：
--
作者：
Heinze G;Wallisch C;Dunkler D
通讯作者：
Dunkler D