Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration
Are historical fire regimes compatible with future climate? Implications for forest restoration
复制标题
历史火灾状况与未来气候兼容吗？
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.1471
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
P. Fulé
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Flatley;P. Fulé
恢复历史火灾状况通常是保护耐火森林的首要目标。然而，个别物种对未来气候变化的反应可能会破坏历史植被与干扰的关系，从而对火灾恢复产生潜在的负面生态后果。我们使用景观模拟模型来评估森林格局将如何响应未来的气候状况以及历史火灾状况的恢复是否有利于未来气候状况下的森林保护。我们的研究景观是位于大峡谷北缘的 335,000 公顷的凯巴布高原，跨越了广阔的海拔植被梯度，包括松柏、黄松、混合针叶树和云杉-冷杉森林以及一系列相关的火灾状况。我们采用了一种新颖的多模型景观模拟方法，使用气候森林植被模拟器来估计单个树种的气候响应，并使用 LANDIS-II 来模拟火灾干扰、森林生长、再生、演替和扩散的空间模式。模型模拟包括三种气候情景（无变化、中度变化和高度变化）和两种火灾情景（火灾排除和火灾恢复）。气候变化情景导致平均森林地上生物量（AGB）下降，组成周转相当于一两个植被带，近似于全新世期间该地区发生的植被位移。火灾恢复导致较早但大致相同的 AGB 下降和成分变化。一些海拔地区的上坡物种迁移产生了树种与火灾状况的不匹配，从而促进了状态变化并增加了非森林面积。无论采取何种火灾管理方法，我们的模拟预测凯巴布高原最终将由松树、杜松、橡树和黄松森林类型主导，而中生针叶树物种将完全消失。我们的结果表明，火灾管理者必须灵活地应用历史火灾制度，以避免再生失败和生物量突然下降。
The restoration of historical fire regimes is often a primary objective in the conservation of fire-adapted forests. However, individual species' responses to future climate change may uncouple historical vegetation–disturbance relationships, producing potentially negative ecological consequences to fire restoration. We used a landscape simulation model to assess how forest pattern will respond to future climate regimes and whether the restoration of historical fire regimes will benefit forest conservation under future climate regimes. Our study landscape was the 335,000-ha Kaibab Plateau at the North Rim of the Grand Canyon spanning a broad elevation-vegetation gradient of pinyon-juniper, ponderosa pine, mixed conifer, and spruce-fir forests along with a range of associated fire regimes. We employed a novel multimodel landscape simulation approach using the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator to estimate individual tree species climate responses and LANDIS-II to simulate spatial patterns of fire disturbance, forest growth, regeneration, succession, and dispersal. Model simulations included three climate scenarios (no change, moderate change, and high change) and two fire scenarios (fire exclusion and fire restoration). The climate change scenarios produced declines in mean forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and a compositional turnover equal to one or two vegetation zones, approximating the vegetation displacement that occurred in this location during the Holocene. Fire restoration resulted in earlier, but roughly equivalent, AGB declines and compositional change. Uphill species migration in some elevation zones produced tree species–fire regime mismatches that promoted state changes and increased nonforest area. Regardless of fire management approach, our simulations project that the Kaibab Plateau will eventually be dominated by pinyon–juniper, oak, and ponderosa pine forest types, with a complete loss of mesic conifer species. Our results indicate that fire managers will have to be flexible with the application of historical fire regimes to avoid regeneration failures and abrupt declines in biomass.