How Robust is the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss Across Climate Models?
How Robust is the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss Across Climate Models?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2019gl084936
复制
发表时间：
2019-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. Screen;R. Blackport
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Screen;R. Blackport
我们通过比较间接方法和在海冰扰动实验中显式模拟的响应来评估间接方法的可靠性，该间接方法通过CMIP5模拟来推断大气对北极海冰预计损失的响应。我们发现，间接法在冬季效果很好，但在其他季节的实用性有限。然后，我们将间接方法的改进版本应用于11个CMIP5模式，以揭示冬季大气对预计的北冰洋海冰减少的稳健和非稳健方面的响应。尽管间接方法有其局限性，但我们发现西伯利亚高压增强，冰岛低压减弱，涡动急流极侧西风减弱，副热带急流增强，平流层极涡减弱。在所有模型中，地面气温对中纬度大陆上北极海冰预计减少的响应是不稳定的。
We assess the reliability of an indirect method of inferring the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss from CMIP5 simulations, by comparing the response inferred from the indirect method to that explicitly simulated in sea ice perturbation experiments. We find that the indirect approach works well in winter, but has limited utility in the other seasons. We then apply a modified version of the indirect method to 11 CMIP5 models to reveal the robust and non‐robust aspects of the wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. Despite limitations of the indirect method, we identify a robust enhancement of the Siberian High, weakening of the Icelandic Low, weakening of the westerly wind on the poleward flank of the eddy‐driven jet, strengthening of the subtropical jet, and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. The surface air temperature response to projected Arctic sea ice loss over mid‐latitude continents is non‐robust across the models.