DURATION OF CLOSED STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC
DURATION OF CLOSED STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC
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DOI：
10.1093/biomet/62.2.477
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发表时间：
1975-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
BARBOUR, AD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BARBOUR, AD
本文讨论了封闭式随机流行病中首次感染和最后清除之间的时间。方法是证明这个时间的分布的极限定理，当人口规模变大时，然后使用极限来提供一个近似分布：流行病允许从大量移民感染开始，或者从单个病例开始。用实例说明了在有限总体中近似的准确性，并给出了极限收敛速度的理论估计。这个问题是更广泛的一类边界问题的典型，所使用的方法可以毫无困难地适用于它们。
The paper discusses the time between the first infection and the last removal in the closed stochastic epidemic. The method is to prove limit theorems for the distribution of this time, as the population size becomes large, and then to use the limits to provide an approximate distribution: the epidemic is allowed to start either with a large number of immigrant infectives, or with a single case. The accuracy of the approximation in finite populations is illustrated by some examples, and the method of proof also gives s theoretical estimate of the rate of convergence to the limit. The problem is typical of a much wider class of boundary problems, and the method used can be adapted to them without difficulty.