Physician decision making and cardiac risk: Effects of knowledge, risk perception, risk tolerance, and fuzzy processing
Physician decision making and cardiac risk: Effects of knowledge, risk perception, risk tolerance, and fuzzy processing
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DOI：
10.1037/1076-898x.12.3.179
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Lloyd, Farrell J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reyna, Valerie F.;Lloyd, Farrell J.
尽管受过培训，专业人士有时会在冒险决策中犯严重错误。作者调查了9个假设患者的判断和决定，他们有3种心脏病风险水平，比较了学生和医生群体在特定领域的不同知识。研究人员检查了决策是否偏离了指导方针，风险感知和风险容忍度如何决定决策，以及后者对知识群体有何不同。知识丰富的专业人员在根据外部对应标准区分风险水平方面表现较好，但在析取概率判断方面犯了类似的错误，违反了内部一致性标准。此外，高知识组比低知识组依赖更少的信息维度。与模糊跟踪理论相一致，专家通过处理较少的信息来实现更好的区分，并在决策类别中做出更清晰的全或无区分。
Despite training, professionals sometimes make serious errors in risky decision making. The authors investigated judgments and decisions for 9 hypothetical patients at 3 levels of cardiac risk, comparing student and physician groups varying in domain-specific knowledge. Decisions were examined regarding whether they deviated from guidelines, how risk perceptions and risk tolerances determined decisions, and how the latter differed for knowledge groups. More knowledgeable professionals were better at discriminating levels of risk according to external correspondence criteria but committed similar errors in disjunctive probability judgments, violating internal coherence criteria. Also, higher knowledge groups relied on fewer dimensions of information than did lower knowledge groups. Consistent with fuzzy-trace theory, experts achieved better discrimination by processing less information and made sharper all-or-none distinctions among decision categories.