Ocean Heat Content responses to changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: regional and multi-decadal variability
Ocean Heat Content responses to changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: regional and multi-decadal variability
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海洋热含量对人为气溶胶强迫强度变化的响应：区域和多年代际变化
DOI：
10.1002/essoar.10511062.1
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Boland E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boland E
全球变暖的十年变化的原因知之甚少，但人们普遍认为，海洋热含量的变化与地表变暖的变化有关。为了研究海洋热含量（OHC）对人为气溶胶（AA）的强迫响应，我们使用了历史模拟的集合，这些模拟是在CMIP 6时代的全球环流模式中使用一系列人为气溶胶强迫强度进行的。研究发现，历史海洋热含量的百年尺度线性变化趋势对AA强迫强度（x10（Jmcentury）/（Wm），R=0.99）非常敏感，但全球海洋热含量的年际至年代际变化与AA强迫强度无关。与观测结果的比较发现，在不同的深度范围内，在不同的时间尺度上，除了最强的气溶胶强迫幅度外，所有的气溶胶强迫幅度都是有限的，至少部分是由于观测精度有限。我们发现，在热带和亚热带的大部分地区，海洋热含量对气溶胶强迫强度增加的敏感性为负。极地地区和北大西洋显示出最强的热含量趋势，也显示出最强的依赖气溶胶强迫强度。然而，在北大西洋和南大洋的海洋热含量增加气溶胶强迫强度的响应是由内部变率，或强烈的状态依赖，在不同的时间段表现出不同的行为。我们的研究结果表明，在这些地区的气溶胶的响应是一个复杂的组合的影响，海洋运输，大气强迫和海冰的反应。
The causes of decadal variations in global warming are poorly understood, however it is widely understood that variations in ocean heat content are linked with variations in surface warming. To investigate the forced response of ocean heat content (OHC) to anthropogenic aerosols (AA), we use an ensemble of historical simulations, which were carried out using a range of anthropogenic aerosol forcing magnitudes in a CMIP6-era global circulation model. We find that the centennial scale linear trends in historical ocean heat content are significantly sensitive to AA forcing magnitude (x10(J mcentury)/(W m), R=0.99), but interannual to multi-decadal variability in global ocean heat content appear largely independent of AA forcing magnitude. Comparison with observations find consistencies in different depth ranges and at different time scales with all but the strongest aerosol forcing magnitude, at least partly due to limited observational accuracy. We find broad negative sensitivity of ocean heat content to increased aerosol forcing magnitude across much of the tropics and sub-tropics. The polar regions and North Atlantic show the strongest heat content trends, and also show the strongest dependence on aerosol forcing magnitude. However, the ocean heat content response to increasing aerosol forcing magnitude in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is either dominated by internal variability, or strongly state dependent, showing different behaviour in different time periods. Our results suggest the response to aerosols in these regions is a complex combination of influences from ocean transport, atmospheric forcings, and sea ice responses.