Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species
Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species
复制标题
气候变化对三种具有重要文化意义的灌木物种的范围和物候的预计影响
作者：
J. Prevéy;L. Parker;C. Harrington
气候变化正在改变全球植物物种的栖息地适宜性和关键生物事件（例如开花和结果）的时间。在这里，我们询问原产于北美西北部的三种粮食生产灌木的分布和物候会如何随着气候变化而变化。为了解决这个问题，我们将网格气候数据与物种位置数据进行比较，以确定最能预测喙榛子 (Corylus cornuta)、俄勒冈葡萄 (Mahonia aquifolium) 和 Salal (Gaultheria willon) 当前生物气候生态位的气候变量。我们还开发了这些物种的开花和果实成熟时间的热和模型。然后，我们使用多模型集合未来气候预测来估计物种范围和物候在未来条件下可能如何变化。建模工作表明，极端最低温度、气候水分不足和夏季平均降水量可以预测所有三个物种的气候适宜性。未来的生物气候生态位模型预测，到 21 世纪末，该物种目前分布范围的低海拔地区和南部地区的栖息地适宜性将大幅下降。这些物种的热和物候模型表明，在高排放情景下，到 21 世纪中叶，水果和坚果的开花和成熟将平均提前 25 天，到 21 世纪末将平均提前 36 天 (RCP 8.5)。这些重要粮食生产物种的气候生态位和物候的未来变化可能会改变营养关系，并对区域生态系统产生连锁影响。
Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species’ current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Hufkens, Koen;Basler, David;Richardson, Andrew D.
通讯作者：
Richardson, Andrew D.
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Prevey, Janet;Vellend, Mark;Rixen, Christian
通讯作者：
Rixen, Christian