The rationality of price forecasts: a directional analysis
The rationality of price forecasts: a directional analysis
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价格预测的合理性：方向性分析
DOI：
10.1080/096031001300138681
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Pons
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Pons
方向测试用于评估国际货币基金组织（IMF）对七国集团国家的价格（GDP隐含平减指数）预测的合理性和有用性。为了确定价格预测是否对用户有用，采用了两个程序。这个测试是基于默顿（1981）和亨里克森和默顿（1981）的方法来确定市场时机预测对投资者有用的条件。结果表明，对未来一年的预测不如对近期的预测好，因为没有证据表明对美国、日本、法国、意大利和加拿大的长期价格预测是有价值的。
Tests of direction are used to evaluate the rationality and uselfulness of the price (GDP implicit deflator) forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the G7 countries. Two procedures are employed to determine whether that price forecasts could be useful to users. This tests are based on Merton's (1981) and Henriksson and Merton's (1981) method for determining the conditions under which a market-timing forecast is useful to investors. The results indicate that year ahead forecasts are less good than near term forecasts, because there is no evidence that longer term price forecasts are valuable for the United States, Japan, France, Italy and Canada.