TIME-VARYING DISASTER RECOVERY MODEL FOR INTERDEPENDENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS USING HYBRID INPUT–OUTPUT AND EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
TIME-VARYING DISASTER RECOVERY MODEL FOR INTERDEPENDENT ECONOMIC SYSTEMS USING HYBRID INPUT–OUTPUT AND EVENT TREE ANALYSIS
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DOI：
10.1080/09535314.2013.872602
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发表时间：
2014-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
J. Santos;K. Yu;S. Pagsuyoin;R. Tan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Santos;K. Yu;S. Pagsuyoin;R. Tan
灾害破坏有形基础设施系统，扰乱人员和商品的流动，并造成重大经济损失。本文利用事件树分析发展了一个I-O模型的扩展，利用不可操作性和经济损失度量来评估灾害影响在相互依赖的经济部门之间的传播。不可操作性是一个无量纲的指数，范围在0到1之间，表示一个部门的生产偏离正常状态的程度。另一方面，经济损失是指由于灾难导致的经济各部门产出下降的货币价值。新的动态I-O扩展能够调整灾难时间轴内的不可操作性参数，以反映可能降低或增强扇区恢复预测路径的事件。这是在纳什维尔地区实施的，这是美国一个以充满活力的音乐和旅游业而闻名的大都市地区。纳什维尔地区经常遭受龙卷风和洪水等自然灾害的袭击，这使其成为模型应用程序的合适案例研究地点。这项研究的结果可以帮助确定关键的经济部门，并最终为制定备灾决策提供见解，以加快灾难恢复。
Disasters damage physical infrastructure systems, disrupt the movement of people and commodities, and cause significant economic losses. This paper develops an I–O model extension using an event tree analysis to assess the propagation of disaster effects across interdependent economic sectors using the inoperability and economic loss metrics. Inoperability, a dimensionless index that ranges between 0 and 1, indicates the extent to which a sector's production deviates below its normal state. On the other hand, economic loss is the monetary worth of the drop in output incurred in each sector of the economy due to the disaster. The new dynamic I–O extension is capable of adjusting the inoperability parameters within the disaster timeline to reflect events that can either degrade or enhance the predicted paths of sector recovery. It was implemented to the Nashville region – a metropolitan area in the USA known for its vibrant music and the tourism industry. The Nashville region is frequently hit by natural disasters such as tornadoes and floods, which makes it a suitable case study site for the model application. Results of the study can help identify critical economic sectors and ultimately provide insights for formulating preparedness decisions to expedite disaster recovery.