Tree ring based precipitation reconstruction in the south slope of the middle Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, over the last millennium
Tree ring based precipitation reconstruction in the south slope of the middle Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, over the last millennium
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DOI：
10.1029/2011jd017290
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发表时间：
2012-04
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Junyan Sun;Yu Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Junyan Sun;Yu Liu
[1]树轮(Sabina przewalskii Kom.)基于青藏高原东北缘祁连山中段南坡的千年降水重建，中国完成了对1958-2004年仪器降水变化的48.5%的解释。根据数十年干(湿)事件的持续时间、强度和强度，确定了降水的长期变化模式。1092-1172、1441-1517和1564-1730有几个较强的年代际干旱周期，而1352-1440年只有一次显著的强湿事件。降水重建的变化与敦德冰芯的冰川堆积和尘埃含量以及青藏高原东北部降水、径流、Palmer干旱严重程度指数和树木年轮宽度系列的变化相一致。15世纪下半叶大干旱的空间范围也集中在青藏高原东北部。近千年来，青藏高原东北部的水分变化在大的时空尺度上是同步的，在几十年尺度上是同步的，特别是在干旱时期。小波分析和与太阳最小活动的比较表明，近千年来的降水变化可能与太阳活动在几十年到百年的尺度上有一定的联系。
[1] A tree ring (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) based millennial precipitation reconstruction on the south slope of the middle Qilian Mountains in the northeastern margin of Tibetan Plateau, China, was completed, which explains 48.5% of the variance in the instrumental precipitation from 1958 to 2004. The long-term precipitation variation patterns were confirmed on the basis of the duration, magnitude, and intensify of the multidecadal dry (wet) events. There are several stronger multidecadal dry periods, 1092–1172, 1441–1517, and 1564–1730, whereas there is only one outstanding severe wet event of 1352–1440. The variations of the precipitation reconstruction are accordant with the glacier accumulation and dust contents of Dunde ice core and also with the variations of the precipitation, runoff, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and tree ring width series in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The spatial extent of the great drought in the latter half of the 15th century also concentrated on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The moisture variations in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau are synchronous over a large spatial and temporal range in multidecadal scale for the last millennium, especially during dry periods. Wavelet analyses and comparisons with the minimal solar activity show that the precipitation variations for the last millennium may have some association with the solar activity on multidecadal to centennial scales.