Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.
Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.n1137
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发表时间：
2021-05-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lacey B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Islam N;Shkolnikov VM;Acosta RJ;Klimkin I;Kawachi I;Irizarry RA;Alicandro G;Khunti K;Yates T;Jdanov DA;White M;Lewington S;Lacey B
利用可靠、完整的按年龄和性别分列的死亡率数据，估计2019冠状病毒病大流行对29个高收入国家2020年死亡率的直接和间接影响。高收入国家的时间序列研究。奥地利、比利时、捷克共和国、丹麦、英格兰和威尔士、爱沙尼亚、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、匈牙利、以色列、意大利、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、荷兰、新西兰、北爱尔兰、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、苏格兰、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、韩国、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士和美国。死亡率数据来自2016- 2020年人类死亡率数据库的短期死亡率波动数据系列，按年龄和性别进行协调和分类。Covid-19大流行和相关政策措施。2020年按性别和年龄（0-14岁、15-64岁、65-74岁、75-84岁和≥85岁）划分的每周超额死亡（模型预测的观察到的死亡与预期死亡），使用考虑死亡率时间趋势和季节变化的过分散泊松回归模型进行估计。在所分析的29个高收入国家中，2020年估计有97.9万例（95%置信区间95.4万至1001万）超额死亡。2020年，除新西兰、挪威和丹麦外，所有国家的死亡人数都超过了预期。超额死亡绝对数字最高的五个国家是美国（45.8万、45.4万至46.1万）、意大利（89.100万、8.75万至9.97万）、英格兰和威尔士（8.54万、8.39万至8.68万）、西班牙（8.100万、8.82万至8.83万）和波兰（6.100万、5.88万至6.83万）。新西兰的总死亡率低于预期（- 2500，- 2900至- 2100）。在许多国家，估计的超额死亡人数大大超过了covid-19报告的死亡人数。男性超额死亡率（每10万人）最高的是立陶宛（285、259至311）、波兰（191、184至197）、西班牙（179、174至184）、匈牙利（174、161至188）和意大利（168、163至173）；女性肥胖率最高的是立陶宛（210、185至234）、西班牙（180、175至185）、匈牙利（169、156至182）、斯洛文尼亚（158、132至184）和比利时（151、141至162）。几乎没有证据表明在死亡率过高后会出现补偿性降低。2020年，在这29个高收入国家中，约有100万人额外死亡。几乎在所有国家，男性的年龄标准化超额死亡率都高于女性。在许多国家，超额死亡人数大大超过了covid-19报告的死亡人数，这表明确定大流行对死亡率的全面影响需要评估超额死亡人数。许多国家15岁以下儿童的死亡率低于预期。2020年，大多数国家死亡率的性别不平等进一步扩大。
To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. Time series study of high income countries. Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (−2500, −2900 to −2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.
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DOI：
10.4049/jimmunol.1601896
发表时间：
2017-05-15
期刊：
Journal of immunology (Baltimore, Md. : 1950)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Channappanavar R;Fett C;Mack M;Ten Eyck PP;Meyerholz DK;Perlman S
通讯作者：
Perlman S
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Barbieri, Magali;Wilmoth, John R.;Winant, Celeste
通讯作者：
Winant, Celeste
监测 COVID-19 大流行对英国心血管疾病服务的间接影响。
DOI：
10.1136/heartjnl-2020-317870
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
Heart (British Cardiac Society)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ball S;Banerjee A;Berry C;Boyle JR;Bray B;Bradlow W;Chaudhry A;Crawley R;Danesh J;Denniston A;Falter F;Figueroa JD;Hall C;Hemingway H;Jefferson E;Johnson T;King G;Lee KK;McKean P;Mason S;Mills NL;Pearson E;Pirmohamed M;Poon MTC;Priedon R;Shah A;Sofat R;Sterne JAC;Strachan FE;Sudlow CLM;Szarka Z;Whiteley W;Wyatt M;CVD-COVID-UK Consortium
通讯作者：
CVD-COVID-UK Consortium
DOI：
10.2307/2983331
发表时间：
1996-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Farrington, CP;Andrews, NJ;Catchpole, MA
通讯作者：
Catchpole, MA
影响因子：
13.8
作者：
Gorges RJ;Konetzka RT
通讯作者：
Konetzka RT