Changes in Extreme Precipitation Over Dry and Wet Regions of China During 1961-2014
Changes in Extreme Precipitation Over Dry and Wet Regions of China During 1961-2014
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1961—2014年中国干湿区极端降水变化
DOI：
10.1029/2018jd029974
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发表时间：
2019-06-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
He, Hong S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Han, Jingya;Du, Haibo;He, Hong S.
极端降水的变化在不同地区(如干旱和潮湿地区)有所不同，对全球变暖的人类生活、社会经济和自然生态系统造成不同的不利影响。在这项研究中，我们使用第95个百分位数的阈值来定义极端降水量。利用降水和气温两个格点观测资料，分析了1961-2014年中国大陆干湿区极端降水和温度-极端降水尺度关系的时空变化。在过去的54年里，干旱地区的极端降水(3.9%的频率和2.8%的相对强度)比潮湿的地区(2.5%的频率和2.1%的相对强度)增加得更快。尽管湿润地区的平均降水量与温度呈负回归关系，但极端降水量与温度呈正相关。湿润地区相对强度对温度变化的回归系数为每摄氏度6%。与干燥地区(每摄氏度6.9%)相比，随着潮湿地区(每摄氏度11.1%)温度的升高，这种频率显著增加(p<；0.01)。这些结果表明，干旱和潮湿地区的极端降水都有所增加，而且干旱地区的趋势更快。然而，相同程度的变暖会导致潮湿地区出现更多极端降水。因此，未来更多的极端降水可能会增加干旱和潮湿地区，特别是潮湿地区的洪水风险，因为相对强度更强，对变暖的影响增加得更快。
Changes in extreme precipitation differ among regions (e.g., dry and wet regions), causing different adverse effects on human life, social economy, and natural ecosystems on a warming planet. In this study, we use the 95th percentile-based threshold to define extreme precipitation. The spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation and temperature-extreme precipitation scaling relationship between dry and wet regions of mainland China during 1961-2014 are analyzed using two gridded data sets of precipitation and temperature observations. Extreme precipitation increased faster in dry regions (3.9% frequency and 2.8% relative intensity per decade) compared to wet regions (2.5% frequency and 2.1% relative intensity per decade) over the past 54 years. Despite the negative regression relationship between mean precipitation and temperature in wet regions, extreme precipitation has a positive relationship with temperature. The regression coefficient in relative intensity against temperature change is 6% per degrees C in wet regions. The frequency increases significantly (p < 0.01) faster as temperature increases in wet regions (11.1% per degrees C) compared with dry regions (6.9% per degrees C). These results suggest that precipitation extremes increase for both dry and wet regions, and faster trends are observed in dry regions. However, the same magnitude of warming causes more extreme precipitation in wet regions. Therefore, more extreme precipitation in future may raise the risk of flooding in both dry and wet regions, particularly for wet regions, due to the stronger relative intensity and faster increases against warming.