Interval squeeze: altered fire regimes and demographic responses interact to threaten woody species persistence as climate changes
Interval squeeze: altered fire regimes and demographic responses interact to threaten woody species persistence as climate changes
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DOI：
10.1890/140231
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
Williams, Richard J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Enright, Neal J.;Fontaine, Joseph B.;Williams, Richard J.
预计气候变化对全球许多生态系统的影响包括更频繁的火灾干扰和由于更温暖（特别是更干燥）的条件而导致的植物生长减少。这种变化影响物种-特别是不耐火的木本植物-通过同时减少补充，生长和生存。总的来说，这些机制可能会缩小火灾间隔窗口兼容人口的持久性，驱动物种灭绝或灭绝。我们提出了一个概念模型，这些综合效应的基础上，合成已知的气候变化和改变火制度对植物种群的影响，并描述了一种综合征，我们称之为间隔挤压。该模型预测，间隔挤压将增加木本植物灭绝的风险，并改变生态系统的结构，组成和碳储量，特别是在预计将变得更加温暖和干燥的地区。这些预测的变化需要新的方法来火灾管理，将最大限度地提高物种的就地适应能力，以应对气候变化和火灾制度的变化。
Projected effects of climate change across many ecosystems globally include more frequent disturbance by fire and reduced plant growth due to warmer (and especially drier) conditions. Such changes affect species - particularly fire-intolerant woody plants - by simultaneously reducing recruitment, growth, and survival. Collectively, these mechanisms may narrow the fire interval window compatible with population persistence, driving species to extirpation or extinction. We present a conceptual model of these combined effects, based on synthesis of the known impacts of climate change and altered fire regimes on plant demography, and describe a syndrome we term interval squeeze. This model predicts that interval squeeze will increase woody plant extinction risk and change ecosystem structure, composition, and carbon storage, especially in regions projected to become both warmer and drier. These predicted changes demand new approaches to fire management that will maximize the in situ adaptive capacity of species to respond to climate change and fire regime change.