A Proposal for Analyzing and Forecasting Lower-Atmospheric Undular Bores in the Western Gulf of Mexico Region
A Proposal for Analyzing and Forecasting Lower-Atmospheric Undular Bores in the Western Gulf of Mexico Region
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墨西哥湾西部地区低层大气波状钻孔的分析和预测建议
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Philip A. Lutzak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Philip A. Lutzak
本文介绍了一种利用标准业务预报和分析技术分析和预报墨西哥湾西部和中部及邻近陆地地区低层大气波状涌浪的方法。该方法是基于研究，已经确定了一组充分条件与这些发生实现的现象，在最近几年的观察，并在理论上的理解，起伏的孔开发在上个世纪的流体动力学。该方法讨论了实际的理论，允许业务预报员使用标准的数值和统计预测模型的输出近似。除了提供一种预测发生时间和地点的操作方法外，该技术还提供了一种分析和预测现象强度、前进速度和水平波长的方法。
AbstractA method is presented for analyzing and forecasting the occurrence of lower-atmospheric undular bores over the western and central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and adjacent land areas using standard operational forecasting and analysis techniques. The method is based on research that has identified a set of sufficient conditions associated with these occurrences realized by observations of the phenomena in recent years and is grounded in the theoretical understanding of undular bores developed during the last century by fluid dynamicists. The approach discusses practical approximations to the theory that allows the operational forecaster to use output from standard numerical and statistical forecast models. In addition to providing an operational method for forecasting the time and location of occurrence, the technique provides a methodology for analyzing and anticipating the strength, forward speed, and horizontal wavelength of the phenomena.