Identification of weather parameters related to regional population outbreak risk of common voles (Microtus arvalis) in Eastern Germany
Identification of weather parameters related to regional population outbreak risk of common voles (Microtus arvalis) in Eastern Germany
复制标题
DOI：
10.1071/wr10196
复制
发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Jacob, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Imholt, C.;Esther, A.;Jacob, J.
语境。爆发期间，普通田鼠（Microtus arvalis）的数量可能会增加到每公顷数千只。在中欧，此类疫情通常会蔓延到大片地区，但在疫情强度、总体疫情风险和相关作物损害方面可能存在显着的区域差异。我们测试了是否可以使用天气参数来解释普通田鼠爆发常见的德国东部地区普通田鼠爆发风险的区域变异性。方法。通过主成分分析（PCA）确定了合适的天气参数。 1973-97 年采样的 36 500 km(2) 范围内 50 个地点的普通田鼠丰度时间序列与 PCA 和多元线性回归选择的天气参数相关。对相关天气参数进行层次聚类分析，以显示田鼠丰度的时间和空间变化。风险类别转换丰度的叠加允许识别适当的阈值来定义田鼠爆发。关键结果。天气参数与田鼠区域暴发风险变化密切相关。大多数冬季和早春的天气参数被认为非常重要。所有测试的风险阈值都揭示了不同地点和年份的风险类别分布的相似模式。虽然大多数年份的极低或极高暴发风险根据天气参数很好地聚类，但一些中等风险类别的病例并没有很好地聚类。结论。尤其是冬季和早春的天气参数与来年秋季的普通田鼠爆发风险有关。这是极高和极低爆发风险的情况，并且在很大程度上独立于爆发风险的特定阈值的选择。影响。天气参数可用于开发单个气象站空间分辨率的自动预报系统。结合其他容易获得的参数（例如土壤特征信息），此类预测可能与过去开发的更复杂的生物模型一样可靠。
Context. Common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations can increase to several thousand individuals per hectare during outbreaks. In central Europe such outbreaks usually extend across large areas but there can be significant regional differences in outbreak intensity, general outbreak risk and associated crop damage.Aims. We tested whether weather parameters can be used to explain the regional variability in outbreak risk of common voles in an area of Eastern Germany where common vole outbreaks are common.Method. Suitable weather parameters were identified by principal component analysis (PCA). Time series of common vole abundance from 50 locations across 36 500 km(2) sampled in 1973-97 were related to weather parameters selected by PCA and multiple linear regression. A hierarchical cluster analysis was used on relevant weather parameters to display the temporal and spatial variability in vole abundance. An overlay of risk class transformed abundances allowed for the identification of appropriate threshold values to define vole outbreaks.Key results. Weather parameters were closely related to the variation in regional outbreak risk of common voles. Mostly weather parameters in winter and early spring were identified to be highly important. All risk thresholds tested revealed similar patterns for the distribution of risk classes across locations and years. While most years of very low or very high outbreak risk clustered well according to weather parameters, some cases of medium risk classes did not cluster well.Conclusions. Weather parameters especially in winter and early spring are related to common vole outbreak risk in the following autumn. This is the case for extremely high and low outbreak risks and is largely independent of the choice of particular threshold values for outbreak risk.Implications. Weather parameters could be used to develop automated forecast systems at the spatial resolution of single weather stations. Combined with other parameters that are easily available, such as information on soil characteristics, such forecasts might be as reliable as more complex biological models developed in the past.