Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes
Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli3689.1
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发表时间：
2006-04-15
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Weber, SL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stouffer, RJ;Yin, J;Weber, SL
大西洋温盐环流（THC）是地球气候系统的重要组成部分。以前的研究表明，在模拟这个关键系统的未来变化时存在很大的不确定性。作为世界气候研究计划（WCRP）耦合模式相互比较项目/古模拟相互比较项目（CMIP/PMIP）委员会的一项活动，模拟THC对理想化淡水扰动和相关气候变化的响应。从中等复杂性的地球系统模式（EMIC）到完全耦合的大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs），这些模式之间的相互比较旨在记录和提高对模拟THC响应的广泛变化的原因的理解。特定模拟功能的鲁棒性已在模型结果中进行了评估。在北大西洋北方，当输入0.1 Sv（1 Sv相当于10（6）ms（3）s（-1））的淡水时，100年后多模式集合平均THC减弱了30%。所有模型都模拟了THC的声波减弱，但没有模型模拟THC的完全关闭。多模式集合表明，地面气温可能会呈现出复杂的异常模式，格陵兰岛南部变冷，巴伦支海和北欧海变暖。大西洋ITCZ倾向于向南移动。在响应1.0西弗淡水输入，THC开关迅速在所有的模型模拟。北大西洋上空出现大幅度降温。年平均大西洋ITCZ进入南半球。模型在THC关闭后的可逆性方面存在分歧。一般来说，EMIC和AOGCM获得类似的THC响应和气候变化，AOGCM中的模式更明显，更清晰。
The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.