Optimizing the Use of Barrier Zones to Slow the Spread of Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in North America
Optimizing the Use of Barrier Zones to Slow the Spread of Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in North America
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优化屏障区的使用以减缓北美舞毒蛾（鳞翅目：舞毒蛾科）的传播
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发表时间：
1998
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通讯作者：
A. Roberts
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作者：
A. Sharov;Andrew M. Liebhold;A. Roberts
减缓舞毒蛾Lymantria dispar（L.）的范围扩大，在北美，在未来将减少受吉普赛蛾种群影响的地区，因此在经济上可能是合理的。通过消除隔离区内的孤立舞毒蛾侵扰，可以降低范围扩展的速度，隔离区位于扩展的种群前沿之外，并缓慢地向种群扩散的方向转移。我们开发了一个模型，以优化资源的分配，监测和治疗隔离区的殖民地。使用在阿巴拉契亚山脉中部收集的数据估计模型参数。该模型预测，当障碍区内的信息素陷阱和根除活动的密度随着与种群前沿的距离的增加而减小时，减缓种群扩散的成本最小化。敏感性分析表明，产量的变化是最敏感的最大距离的人口前沿，在殖民地可以成为建立。屏障区所有监测和处理的预测成本现值<25年内减缓舞毒蛾传播预期效益现值的1/4。
Slowing the expansion of the range of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), in North America will reduce the area affected by gypsy moth populations in the future and hence may be economically justified. The rate of range expansion can be reduced by eradication of isolated gypsy moth infestations in a barrier zone that is located just beyond the expanding population front and is slowly shifted in the direction of population spread. We developed a model to optimize the allocation of resources for monitoring and treatment of isolated colonies in a barrier zone. Model parameters were estimated using data collected in the central Appalachian Mountains. The model predicted that the cost of slowing population spread is minimized when the density of pheromone traps and eradication activity within the barrier zone decrease with increasing distance from the population front. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the output was most sensitive to the change of the maximum distance from the population front at which colonies can become established. The present value of predicted costs of all monitoring and treatment in the barrier zone were <1/4 the present value of expected benefits from slowing the spread of the gypsy moth over 25 yr.