Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.017
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando;Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
背景：哥伦比亚于2020年3月2日发现了首例2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例。从3月22日到4月25日，它实施了全国封锁，显然，这使该国能够在5月中旬之前保持低发病率和死亡率。迫于经济损失，政府随后开放了许多商业活动，随之而来的是病例和死亡人数的增加。本文提出了一个关键的分析，哥伦比亚的监测数据，以确定优势和陷阱的控制措施。方法：3月至7月25日之间的PCR确诊病例进行了描述性分析。根据测量水平描述数据。COVID-19的发病率和死亡率按年龄、性别和地理区域进行估计。疑似病例的采样率估计的地理区域，并估计潜在的病例低估使用抽样differentiation.Results：到7月25日，哥伦比亚（人口50 372 424）已报告240 745例和8269例死亡（病死率为3.4%）。共分析了1370271份样本（每百万人27405份样本），阳性率为17%。每百万人的抽样率因地区而异，从每百万人2664到158681不等，因此发病率和死亡率也各不相同。由于地理变化的监测能力，哥伦比亚可能忽略了高达82%的实际cases.Conclusion：哥伦比亚有较低的病例和死亡率相比，其他南美国家。这可能是封锁的影响，但也可能在某种程度上归因于监视能力的地域差异。卫生基础设施薄弱的土著居民受到的打击最为严重。(C)2020年，任作家。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Background: Colombia detected its first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on March 2, 2020. From March 22 to April 25, it implemented a national lockdown that, apparently, allowed the country to keep a low incidence and mortality rate up to mid-May. Forced by the economic losses, the government then opened many commercial activities, which was followed by an increase in cases and deaths. This paper presents a critical analysis of the Colombian surveillance data in order to identify strengths and pitfalls of the control measures.Methods: A descriptive analysis of PCR-confirmed cases between March and July 25 was performed. Data were described according to the level of measurement. Incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 were estimated by age, sex, and geographical area. Sampling rates for suspected cases were estimated by geographical area, and the potential for case underestimation was assessed using sampling differences.Results: By July 25, Colombia (population 50 372 424) had reported 240 745 cases and 8269 deaths (case fatality rate of 3.4%). A total of 1 370 271 samples had been analyzed (27 405 samples per million people), with a positivity rate of 17%. Sampling rates per million varied by region from 2664 to 158 681 per million, and consequently the incidence and mortality rates also varied. Due to geographical variations in surveillance capacity, Colombia may have overlooked up to 82% of the actual cases.Conclusion: Colombia has a lower case and mortality incidence compared to other South American countries. This may be an effect of the lockdown, but may also be attributed, to some extent, to geographical differences in surveillance capacity. Indigenous populations with little health infrastructure have been hit the hardest. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.