Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions
Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions
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DOI：
10.1093/erae/jbq047
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Lehtonen, Heikki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Niemi, Jarkko K.;Lehtonen, Heikki
我们使用一个随机动态规划模型来模拟芬兰养猪业口蹄疫替代方案的市场影响。该模型考虑了当出口中断持续时间未知时，动物种群调整和价格变动的动态。在牲畜流行病的经济分析中，明确处理这些问题至关重要，特别是在存在长期出口禁令风险的情况下。结果表明，长期禁令的风险大大增加了疾病损失。它还增加了生产调整带来的经济效益。
We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments.