Analytics with digital-twinning: A decision support system for maintaining a resilient port
Analytics with digital-twinning: A decision support system for maintaining a resilient port
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DOI：
10.1016/j.dss.2021.113496
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chenhao Zhou;Jie Xu;Elise Miller-Hooks;Weiwen Zhou;Chun-Hung Chen;L. Lee;E. P. Chew;Haobin Li
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文献类型：
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作者：
Chenhao Zhou;Jie Xu;Elise Miller-Hooks;Weiwen Zhou;Chun-Hung Chen;L. Lee;E. P. Chew;Haobin Li
本文提出了一种基于数字结对的弹性分析决策支持系统(DSS)，作为港口弹性计算和更新的现代工具。考虑到港口的设计、运营和潜在的预定义的事后恢复行动，拟议的DSS评估港口在可能发生中断事件时的恢复能力，以减轻中断的影响。数字配对通过在各种可能的中断事件下采取的事件后恢复操作，提供实际预测端口性能所需的保真度。除了对冲概率已知中断事件的影响外，这种方法还可以将普通的运营不确定性纳入弹性评估。对于其他现有的弹性量化方法来说，这通常是不可行的。为了解决将数字孪生兄弟应用于真实世界大小应用程序的计算挑战，采用了一种最优计算预算分配策略来提高计算效率。使用真实大小港口的数值实验结果表明，所提出的决策支持系统是有效的，并且在弹性估计中考虑到操作中的常见不确定性的重要性。
In this paper, a Decision Support System (DSS) with digital twinning-based resilience analysis is proposed as a modern tool for port resilience computation and updating. The proposed DSS assesses the resilience of a port under possible disruptive events given its design, operations and potential pre-defined post-event recovery actions to mitigate the impact of the disruption. Digital twinning provides the fidelity required to realistically predict port performance with taken post-event recovery actions under various possible disruptive events. In addition to hedging against impacts from probabilistically known disruption events, this approach also enables inclusion of ordinary operational uncertainties within the resilience evaluation. This is not generally feasible with other existing resilience quantification approaches. To tackle computational challenges of applying a digital twin for real-world size applications, an optimal computing budget allocation policy is adopted to improve computational efficiency. Results of numerical experiments using a real-world size port demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DSS and criticality of accounting for ordinary uncertainties in operations in resilience estimation.