Energy efficiency and conservation in China's chemical fiber industry
Energy efficiency and conservation in China's chemical fiber industry
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.06.070
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发表时间：
2015-09
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Boqiang Lin;Hongli Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boqiang Lin;Hongli Zhao
由于工业化和城市化，中国目前正经历着快速的经济增长。未来20年，中国的能源需求将大幅增长，节能将成为中国低碳经济转型的当务之急。1998年以来，中国化纤产量一直居世界首位。2011年，中国化纤产量约占世界总产量的70%。因此，节能对中国化纤工业非常重要，可以带来巨大的效益，因此需要进行深入和深入的研究。本文采用协整方法检验了能源消费与GDP、能源价格、人口、研发支出等影响因素之间的关系。结果表明，各变量之间存在着长期的关系。在此基础上，对不同情景下的能源需求进行估算，并对行业节能潜力进行预测。应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法验证了预测的可靠性。采用情景分析法对不同情景下的行业能源需求和节能情况进行预测。最后，在研究的基础上提出了节能政策建议。
China is currently experiencing rapid economic growth as a result of industrialization and urbanization. In the next 20 years, China's energy demand will increase substantially, and energy conservation will become imperative for the country's low carbon economic transformation. Since 1998, China's chemical fiber production has ranked first in the world. In 2011, China's chemical fiber production accounted for about 70% of the world's total output. Therefore, energy saving is important for China's chemical fiber industry, and can provide immense benefits, and hence the need for thorough and intense research. In this paper, the co-integration method is used to test the relationship between energy consumption and its influencing factors such as GDP, energy prices, population and R&D expenditures. The results show that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. Based on this, we estimate energy demand and predict the energy-saving potential for the industry under different scenarios. We apply the Monte Carlo simulation method to verify the reliability of the prediction. Scenario analysis is adopted to predict energy demand and energy saving in the industry under different scenarios. Finally, we propose some policy suggestions on energy saving based on the research.