MODELING BIOENERGY, LAND USE, AND GHG EMISSIONS WITH FASOMGHG: MODEL OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF STORAGE COST IMPLICATIONS
MODELING BIOENERGY, LAND USE, AND GHG EMISSIONS WITH FASOMGHG: MODEL OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF STORAGE COST IMPLICATIONS
复制标题
使用 FASOMGHG 对生物能源、土地利用和温室气体排放进行建模：模型概述和存储成本影响分析
DOI：
10.1142/s2010007812500121
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. McCarl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Beach;Yuquan W. Zhang;B. McCarl
近年来，由于石油价格上涨以及人们对气候变化和能源安全的担忧加剧，生物燃料的产量迅速增加。然而，由于目前商业上可行的生物燃料主要是从农业原料中生产的，更高的产量增加了对土地资源的压力。因此，大规模生物燃料生产对森林和农业部门、土地使用、贸易和温室气体净排放量具有重要影响。随着国内和国际对食品、饲料和纤维的需求上升，强制生物燃料产量增加，预计未来对土地的竞争将继续加剧。为了应对对间接土地利用变化和食品价格上涨等影响的高度担忧，美国的政策正将重点放在第二代(纤维素)原料上，以贡献到2022年生物燃料产量强制增加的大部分。然而，几乎没有探索供应这些原料的后勤工作，也没有研究可再生燃料任务与气候政策相结合的原料组合和净温室气体影响。在这篇文章中，我们应用最近更新的森林和农业部门温室气体优化模型(FASOMGHG)来探索关于原料储存成本和碳价格的替代假设对可再生能源生产组合、土地利用和温室气体净排放量的影响。在考虑储存成本时，该模型被用来量化生物能源原料最佳组合的变化幅度和区域分布。此外，我们发现，将生物燃料量授权与碳价格政策结合起来，对原料组合有额外的影响，并提供比单独使用可再生燃料授权更大的温室气体净减少量。
Biofuels production has increased rapidly in recent years due to higher petroleum prices as well as heightened concerns regarding climate change and energy security. However, because commercially viable biofuels are currently produced primarily from agricultural feedstocks, higher production volumes increase pressure on land resources. Thus, large-scale biofuels production has important implications for the forest and agriculture sectors, land use, trade, and net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Competition for land is expected to continue growing in the future as mandated biofuels volumes increase along with rising demand for food, feed, and fiber, both domestically and internationally. In response to heightened concern regarding impacts such as indirect land-use change and higher food prices, the U.S. policy is focusing on second-generation (cellulosic) feedstocks to contribute the majority of the mandated increase in biofuels volume through 2022. However, there has been little work exploring the logistics of supplying these feedstocks or examining feedstock mix and net GHG effects of combining renewable fuels mandates with climate policy. In this paper, we apply the recently updated Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model with GHGs (FASOMGHG) to explore the implications of alternative assumptions regarding feedstock storage costs and carbon price for renewable energy production mix, land use, and net GHG emissions. The model is used to quantify the magnitude and regional distribution of changes in the optimal mix of bioenergy feedstocks when accounting for storage costs. In addition, we find that combining the biofuels volume mandate with a carbon price policy has additional implications for feedstock mix and provides a substantially larger net reduction in GHG than a renewable fuels mandate alone.