Measuring the Intangible Risk of Conflict : Policy Implications for Development Assistance
Measuring the Intangible Risk of Conflict : Policy Implications for Development Assistance
复制标题
衡量冲突的无形风险:对发展援助的政策影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Daimon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Daimon
本文聚焦于日本近期在伊拉克和阿富汗等受战争影响的国家中为协调经济援助与军事行动所做出的努力。文章提出，在冲突风险中存在“脆弱性”的有形和无形指标，这些指标可以使用一种名为“托比特”（Tobit）的受限计量经济模型进行建模和测量。根据托比特模型的结果，官方发展援助（ODA）的规模与战争的有形和无形风险呈显著负相关，这表明官方发展援助增加与风险降低之间存在循环因果关系。从该分析中可以得出一个重要的政策启示。在战争或类似战争的情况下，比如2003年以来的伊拉克，只有武装人员才能打破“安全状况恶化的恶性循环”，以平衡发展需求和对贫困地区的援助可达性。在“不许可”环境这种极端危险的情况下，即安全水平极低时，也可能出现即使有军队保护平民也无法履行其职责的情况。为了打破在不许可情况下的和平建设过程中可能出现的这种困境，并实现这些国家和平建设的有效性，官方发展援助机构和军事机构之间需要进行更实质性的协调。日本自卫队（SDF）作为工程师和社会工作者直接参与了东帝汶和伊拉克的人道主义行动，这些角色可以被视为实际上等同于提供发展援助，比如基本和生命线基础设施的重建。回归分析为武装部队在危险情况下预期开展发展和重建行动的情况提供了一些额外证据，指向了一种促进和平建设的发展援助新规范。
This paper focuses on the recent efforts initiated by Japan to coordinate between the economic assistance and military operations in war-driven countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan. The paper proposes that there are both tangible and non-tangible indicators of “vulnerabilities” in conflict risk, which can be modeled and measured using a “censored” econometric model called the “Tobit.” According to the results of the Tobit model, the size of official development assistance (ODA) is significantly negatively correlated with the tangible and intangible risks of war, suggesting the existence of circular causality between increased ODA and decreased risk. An important policy implication can be drawn from the analysis. In a war or war-like situation, such as the case of Iraq since 2003, only armed personnel can break the “vicious cycle of deteriorating security,” to balance the need for development and accessibility to the needy areas. In an extremely risky case of a “non-permissive” environment, that is, when the security level is significantly low, it may also be that civilians cannot perform their duties even when they are protected by the military. In order to break such dilemma, which may arise during peacebuilding in nonpermissive situations, and to realize the effectiveness of peacebuilding in these countries, more substantive coordination between ODA and military agencies is required. The Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are directly involved in humanitarian operations in East Timor and Iraq as engineers and social workers, roles that can be considered as the de facto equivalent of providing development assistance, such as reconstruction of basic and lifeline infrastructure. The regression analysis provides some additional evidence for cases in which the armed forces are expected to conduct development and reconstruction operations under risky situations, pointing to a new norm of development assistance that promotes peacebuilding.