Reduced frequency and size of late-twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America
Reduced frequency and size of late-twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-0774-4
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发表时间：
2020-05-25
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Gensini, Vittorio A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ashley, Walker S.;Haberlie, Alex M.;Gensini, Vittorio A.
预测气候变化对暴风雪的影响是未来水资源估算的关键。高分辨率变暖模拟对北美暴风雪进行了跟踪，并显示出风暴数量、雪水当量和面积足迹的大幅减少，特别是在平季。了解暴风雪未来可能如何变化，对于估计对水资源和地球以及依赖它们的社会经济系统的影响至关重要。在这里，我们使用雪暴作为一个标志，以评估气候变化的中尺度指纹，提供了一个描述的潜在变化，冬季天气事件的发生，特点和变化在北美中部和东部的高人为排放途径。雪暴分割和跟踪使用高分辨率，雪水等效输出的动态降尺度模拟，不像全球气候模式，可以解决重要的中尺度功能，如带状雪。在一个伪全球变暖模拟中，发现暴风雪的频率和规模都有显著下降，包括那些产生最极端降雪量的事件。北半球冬季的早期和晚期月份显示出暴风雪和雪水当量积累的比例特别强劲的下降。
Predicting the impact of climate change on snowstorms is key for future water resource estimates. North American snowstorms are tracked in high-resolution warming simulations and exhibit robust decreases in storm count, snow water equivalent and areal footprint, particularly in shoulder seasons.Understanding how snowstorms may change in the future is critical for estimating impacts on water resources and the Earth and socioeconomic systems that depend on them. Here we use snowstorms as a marker to assess the mesoscale fingerprint of climate change, providing a description of potential changes in winter weather event occurrence, character and variability in central and eastern North America under a high anthropogenic emissions pathway. Snowstorms are segmented and tracked using high-resolution, snow water equivalent output from dynamically downscaled simulations which, unlike global climate models, can resolve important mesoscale features such as banded snow. Significant decreases are found in the frequency and size of snowstorms in a pseudo-global warming simulation, including those events that produce the most extreme snowfall accumulations. Early and late boreal winter months show particularly robust proportional decreases in snowstorms and snow water equivalent accumulations.