Changing access to ice, land and water in Arctic communities
Changing access to ice, land and water in Arctic communities
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改变北极社区获取冰、土地和水的途径
作者：
J. Ford;J. Ford;D. Clark;T. Pearce;L. Berrang‐Ford;L. Copland;J. Dawson;M. New;M. New;S. Harper
北极气候变化有可能影响陆上、水上和海冰上半永久小径的使用，这些小径是许多环极地地区社区的主要交通方式。以因纽特人努南加特(加拿大北部的因纽特人故乡)为重点，利用将土著知识和科学联系起来的参与性进程，开发了步道通道模式。我们确定了天气和海冰变量的一般阈值，这些变量定义了决定足迹访问的边界，然后将这些阈值应用于天气和海冰条件的仪器数据，以模拟从1985年到2016年16个 社区的每日足迹可访问性。我们发现，在过去30年中，总体路径访问受 >；2 °C变暖的影响最小，根据路径类型的不同，增加了1.38-1.96 天。在所有模型中，与气候条件变化相比，步道使用者的知识、设备和风险承受能力在决定步道准入方面的影响要大得多。气候变化有可能深刻影响北极交通系统。在这里，土著知识和气候数据被整合在一起，以模拟加拿大因纽特人社区在过去30 年中不断变化的步道通道
Arctic climate change has the potential to affect access to semi-permanent trails on land, water and sea ice, which are the main forms of transport for communities in many circumpolar regions. Focusing on Inuit Nunangat (the Inuit homeland in northern Canada), trail access models were developed drawing upon a participatory process that connects Indigenous knowledge and science. We identified general thresholds for weather and sea ice variables that define boundaries that determine trail access, then applied these thresholds to instrumental data on weather and sea ice conditions to model daily trail accessibility from 1985 to 2016 for 16 communities. We find that overall trail access has been minimally affected by >2 °C warming in the past three decades, increasing by 1.38–1.96 days, differing by trail type. Across models, the knowledge, equipment and risk tolerance of trail users were substantially more influential in determining trail access than changing climatic conditions.Climate change has the potential to profoundly affect Arctic transportation systems. Here, Indigenous knowledge and climate data are integrated to model changing trail access for Canada’s Inuit communities over the past 30 years