Assessing the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Events in Japan in Early July 2018 on Medium-Range Timescales
Assessing the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Events in Japan in Early July 2018 on Medium-Range Timescales
复制标题
评估中期时间尺度上 2018 年 7 月上旬日本强降雨事件的可预测性
作者：
T. Matsunobu;M. Matsueda
2018年7月上旬，日本西部地区发生了特大暴雨事件。本研究使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）、日本气象厅（JMA）和国家环境预报中心（NCEP）提供的三个业务中期集合预报，以及使用ECMWF模式和NCEP业务集合初始条件进行的集合模拟，评估了7月5 - 7日期间这些事件的可预报性。所有三个业务集合都预测了7月5日至6日的极端降雨，提前时间≤ 6天，表明该事件的可预测性很高。然而，7月6日至7日的极端降雨事件则较难预测。6月30日初始化的NCEP预报在预测这一事件方面比其他业务预报表现更好。7月1日初始化的日本气象厅预报显示可预测性有所改善;然而，6月30日之后初始化的ECMWF预报显示，随着初始化时间的推移，可预测性只会逐渐改善。集合模拟显示，ECMWF在7月6日至7日的降水预报中，降水的可预报性较低，这可能是由于模式而不是初始条件。准确预报北太平洋副热带高压是准确预报此类极端降雨事件的先决条件。（引用：Matsunobu，T.，和m. Matsueda，2019：评估2018年7月初日本暴雨事件在中期时间尺度上的可预测性。SOLA，15A，19 − 24，doi：10.2151/sola.15A-004.）
Extremely heavy rainfall events occurred over western Japan in early July 2018. This study assesses the predictability of these events for the period 5−7 July using three operational mediumrange ensemble forecasts available from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and ensemble simulations conducted with an ECMWF model and NCEP operational ensemble initial conditions. All three operational ensembles predicted extreme rainfall on 5−6 July at lead times of ≤ 6 days, indicating the high predictability of this event. However, the extreme rainfall event of 6−7 July was less predictable. The NCEP forecasts, initialised on 30 June, performed better at predicting this event than the other operational forecasts. The JMA forecasts initialised on 1 July showed improved predictability; however, the ECMWF forecasts initialised after 30 June showed only gradual improvements as the initialisation time progressed. The ensemble simulations revealed that the lower predictability of the rainfall in the ECMWF forecasts on 6−7 July can be attributed to the model rather than to the initial conditions. Accurate prediction of the North Pacific Subtropical High is a prerequisite for accurate prediction of such extreme rainfall events. (Citation: Matsunobu, T., and M. Matsueda, 2019: Assessing the predictability of heavy rainfall events in Japan in early July 2018 on medium-range timescales. SOLA, 15A, 19−24, doi: 10.2151/sola.15A-004.)
罗斯贝波结构的系统模型预报误差
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Gray S
通讯作者：
Gray S