Recent and projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Grand Canyon area with implications for groundwater resources.
Recent and projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Grand Canyon area with implications for groundwater resources.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-76743-6
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发表时间：
2020-11-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Pruitt T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tillman FD;Gangopadhyay S;Pruitt T
地下水是大峡谷地区的重要资源，为居民和数百万游客提供了几乎所有的用水需求。此外，大峡谷及其附近数百个泉水处的地下水在这个干旱的环境中为重要的生态系统提供了支持。地下水供应的安全对该地区的人民和生态系统都至关重要，预计的气候变化对地下水系统的潜在变化令人担忧。在这项研究中，我们分析了大峡谷地区最近的历史和预测降水和温度数据。然后将预估的气候情景用于土壤水分平衡地下水入渗模拟，以了解该地区地下水资源预估变化的最新科学状况。从1896年到2019年的历史气候数据表明，在大多数时间段内，降水和温度都存在多年代际周期模式。然而，自20世纪70年代以来，该地区的气温出现了显著上升趋势。1993年以来的所有10年周期均表现为降水低于平均水平，气温高于平均水平。97个CMIP5全球气候模式在2020-2099水年期间的降水和温度输出的缩小和偏差校正表明预估的降水模式与最近的历史（1951-2015水年）数据相似。然而，预计到本世纪末，大峡谷地区的气温将比最近的历史平均水平上升3.4°C。综合预估降水和温度变化对地下水入渗的影响，模拟结果表明，未来几十年> 76%的平均潜在地下水入渗将低于最近的历史时期。
Groundwater is a critical resource in the Grand Canyon region, supplying nearly all water needs for residents and millions of visitors. Additionally, groundwater discharging at hundreds of spring locations in and near Grand Canyon supports important ecosystems in this mostly arid environment. The security of groundwater supplies is of critical importance for both people and ecosystems in the region and the potential for changes to groundwater systems from projected climate change is a cause for concern. In this study, we analyze recent historical and projected precipitation and temperature data for the Grand Canyon region. Projected climate scenarios are then used in Soil Water Balance groundwater infiltration simulations to understand the state-of-the-science on projected changes to groundwater resources in the area. Historical climate data from 1896 through 2019 indicate multi-decadal cyclical patterns in both precipitation and temperature for most of the time period. Since the 1970s, however, a significant rising trend in temperature is observed in the area. All 10-year periods since 1993 are characterized by both below average precipitation and above average temperature. Downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation and temperature output from 97 CMIP5 global climate models for the water-year 2020–2099 time period indicate projected precipitation patterns similar to recent historical (water-year 1951–2015) data. Projected temperature for the Grand Canyon area, however, is expected to rise by as much as 3.4 °C by the end of the century, relative to the recent historical average. Integrating the effects of projected precipitation and temperature changes on groundwater infiltration, simulation results indicate that > 76% of future decades will experience average potential groundwater infiltration less than that of the recent historical period.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Liu, Changhai;Ikeda, Kyoko;Yates, David
通讯作者：
Yates, David
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Pierce, David W.;Cayan, Daniel R.;Thrasher, Bridget L.
通讯作者：
Thrasher, Bridget L.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Pierce, David W.;Cayan, Daniel R.;Hegewisch, Katherine C.
通讯作者：
Hegewisch, Katherine C.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Crossey, LJ;Fischer, TP;de Leeuw, GAM
通讯作者：
de Leeuw, GAM
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
HUNTOON, PW
通讯作者：
HUNTOON, PW