Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes
Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes
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油价波动对油轮海上网络结构及交通流量变化的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.011
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发表时间：
2019-03
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Jinhai Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hongchu Yu;Zhixiang Fang;Feng Lu;Alan T. Murray;Hengcai Zhang;Peng Peng;Qiang Mei;Jinhai Chen
了解海上网络结构和交通流量变化是一项具有挑战性的任务，必须结合经济，能源，地缘政治，海上运输和网络科学。报告研究了油价波动、海运网络结构和交通流量变化之间是否存在联系，并调查了油轮海运网络结构和交通流量变化是否受油价波动的驱动。这是制定战略能源政策的基本知识。为了解决这个问题，引入了一种基于系统的方法来构建基于轨迹数据的海上运输网络。根据月运量推算出海运网络结构和交通流量的变化。然后使用支持方法来揭示双向联系、长期平衡关系以及归因于石油价格波动、海运网络结构和交通流量变化的冲击反应。有证据表明，在依赖石油进口和依赖石油出口的国家，石油价格波动、海运网络结构和交通流量变化之间存在着不同的双向联系。国际原油价格波动促使许多受审查国家的海运网络结构发生变化，并在第二或第三个月出现快速增长高峰。研究结果对油价波动背景下的国家油轮运输策略具有重要的政策意义，建议进口来源地和出口目的地的多样化以及运输方式的调整，以科普油价波动引起的供应冲击。
Understanding maritime network structure and traffic flow changes is a challenging task that must incorporate economic, energy, geopolitics, maritime transportation, and network sciences. The reported research examines whether there are linkages between oil price fluctuations, maritime network structure and traffic flow changes, and investigates whether tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes are driven by oil price fluctuations. This is essential knowledge for developing strategies energy policies. To address this, a systems-based approach is introduced to construct a maritime transportation network based on trajectory data. The maritime network structure and traffic flow changes are derived from monthly transport. Supporting methods were then used to reveal two-way linkages, long-term balance relationships and shock responses attributable to oil price fluctuations, the maritime network structure and traffic flow changes. Evidence suggests that there are different two-way linkages between oil price fluctuations, maritime network structure and traffic flow changes in oil import- dependent and export-dependent countries. International crude oil price fluctuations contribute to maritime network structure changes for many of the countries examined, and showed rapid growth peaks in the second or third month. Our results have important policy implications for national tanker transportation strategies within the context of oil price fluctuations, suggesting diversification of import origins and export destinations as well as adjustment of shipping mode to cope with the supply shocks caused by oil price fluctuations.
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