The Nationalization of Japanese Elections
The Nationalization of Japanese Elections
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日本选举的国有化
DOI：
10.1017/s1598240800008055
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
K. McElwain
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. McElwain
战后自民党（LDP）在选举中的主导地位是建立在(1)强大的执政优势之上的，这使其立法者免受党派支持率下降的影响；(2)选区分配不当，这高估了该党在农村基础的选举影响力。自民党在2009年的失败是由于这两个因素的逆转，而这两个因素都与上世纪90年代的选举改革有关。首先，我证明选举正变得越来越“国有化”，因为选民越来越重视政党领导人的吸引力。其次，1994年，分配不公减少了近一半，这意味着农村选票现在可以获得更少的席位。因此，能够在全国范围内吸引摇摆选民的政党比那些拥有狭窄地区基础的政党更有可能获胜。
The postwar electoral dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was founded on (1) strong incumbency advantage, which insulated its legislators from declining party popularity, and (2) the malapportionment of districts, which overvalued the electoral clout of the party’s rural base. The LDP’s demise in 2009 was due to the reversal of both factors, each of which was related to electoral reforms in the 1990s. First, I demonstrate that elections are becoming more “nationalized,” due to the growing weight that voters attach to the attractiveness of party leaders. Past performance has become a poorer predictor of incumbent reelection, giving way to large partisan swings that are increasingly correlated across districts. Second, malapportionment was reduced by almost half in 1994, meaning that rural votes are now worth fewer seats. As a result, parties that can attract swing voters nationally are better positioned for victory than those with a narrow regional base.