Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface
Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface
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应对风险：从英国页岩气经验中汲取的经验教训，评估未来深层地下地球能源使用的环境风险
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171036
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发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Smedley P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smedley P
摘要调查结果提出了一项调查，以提高对环境风险的理解与发展非常规碳氢化合物工业在英国。由英国研究委员会资助的PST 4 RISK项目重点调查了兰开夏郡Fylde的普雷斯顿新路（PNR）和北约克郡的Kirby Misperton站点A（KMA），2016年颁发了通过水力压裂（HF）勘探页岩气的运营商许可证，尽管勘探仅在PNR进行。ARIT 4 RISK考虑了大气（温室气体、空气质量）、水（地下水质量）和固体地球（地震活动）分区，以模拟和模拟当地条件和环境对HF活动的反应。风险评估以来源-途径-受体方法为基础。这两个地点周围的空气基线监测特征的变化与气象条件和同位素特征能够区分生物甲烷（牛）产热（天然气）来源。对PNR的HF氮气提升（洗井）后作业进行的监测发现，大气中释放出甲烷（4.2 ± 1.4吨CH 4）。KMA周围的地下水监测确定了高基线甲烷浓度，并在一些地点检测到乙烷和丙烷。从稳定同位素证据推断，溶解甲烷绝大多数是生物成因的。PNR周围的地下水质量监测没有发现HF引起影响的证据。利用2018年和2019年PNR的地震活动和运行参数观测结果，开发了两种模拟诱发地震活动和相关地震风险的方法。为监测开发的新方法包括使用机器学习来识别逃逸的大气甲烷，使用贝叶斯统计来评估地下水质量的变化，使用HF流体注入率播种的地震活动预测模型以及对土壤气体甲烷的高分辨率监测。该项目开发了一个符合ISO 31000风险管理原则的风险评估框架，评估一段时间内作业的理论综合和累积环境风险。这表明了风险状况的空间和时间演变：页岩气作业对地震和大气的影响被模拟为局部和短暂的，而对地下水质量的风险是长期的。
Summary findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 ± 1.4 t CH4). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane.The project developed a risk-assessment framework, aligned with ISO 31000 risk-management principles, to assess the theoretical combined and cumulative environmental risks from operations over time. This demonstrated the spatial and temporal evolution of risk profiles: seismic and atmospheric impacts from the shale-gas operations are modelled to be localised and short-lived, while risk to groundwater quality is longer-term.