Time-distributed effect of exposure and infectious outbreaks
Time-distributed effect of exposure and infectious outbreaks
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DOI：
10.1002/env.923
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
MacNeill, Ian B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Naumova, Elena N.;MacNeill, Ian B.
极端天气会影响传染病爆发的时间和强度、感染的死灰复燃和重新分布，并造成人类与环境相互作用的干扰。具有高体温调节要求的环境压力源要求易感人群经历可能损害免疫功能并增加感染易感性的生理适应过程。评估环境暴露与传染病之间的关联。未能考虑暴露时间和疾病表现时间之间的潜伏期可能会导致严重低估效果。在人群中，所有暴露事件对健康的影响分布在一定的时间间隔内。考虑到这种时间分布的滞后是一项具有挑战性的任务，因为潜伏期的长度从前几个小时到几个月不等，并且取决于病原体的类型。个体对病原体的易感性、接触剂量、传播途径和许多其他因素。本次交流的两个主要目标是介绍一种对感染病例暴露的时间分布效应进行建模的方法，并在高环境温度与肠道传播感染每日发病率之间关联的所有分析中证明该方法。该研究还辅以广泛的模拟，以检查模型对响应幅度、暴露频率和潜伏期范围的敏感性。版权所有 (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons。有限公司
Extreme weather affects the timing, and intensity of infectious outbreaks, the resurgence and redistribution of infection, and it causes disturbances in human-environment interactions. Environmental stressors with high thermoregulatory demands require susceptible Populations to undergo physiological adaptive processes potentially compromising immune function and increasing susceptibility to infection. In assessing associations between environmental exposures and infectious diseases. failure to account for a latent period between time of exposure and time of disease manifestation may lead to severe underestimation of the effect. In a population, health effects of all episode of exposure are distributed over a range of time lags. To consider such time-distributed lags is a challenging task given that the length of a latent period varies front hours to months and depends Oil the type Of pathogen. individual susceptibility to the pathogen, dose of exposure, route of transmission, and many other factors. The two main objectives of this communication are to introduce an approach to modeling time-distributed effect of exposures to infection cases and to demonstrate this approach in all analysis of the association between high ambient temperature and daily incidence of enterically transmitted infections. The study is supplemented with extensive simulations to examine model sensitivity to response magnitude, exposure frequency, and extent of latent period. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.