Modeling urban land-use dynamics in a fast developing city using the modified logistic cellular automaton with a patch-based simulation strategy
Modeling urban land-use dynamics in a fast developing city using the modified logistic cellular automaton with a patch-based simulation strategy
复制标题
使用改进的逻辑元胞自动机和基于补丁的模拟策略对快速发展的城市中的城市土地利用动态进行建模
DOI：
10.1080/13658816.2013.831868
复制
发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Ai, Bin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Yimin;Li, Xia;Ai, Bin
元胞自动机(CA)已经被用来理解城市的复杂性和动力学。Logistic元胞自动机(Logistic-CA)是一种流行的基于Logistic回归的模拟城市增长的元胞自动机模型。然而，该模型通常采用基于单元的模拟策略，没有考虑土地利用斑块的空间演化。这一缺陷在很大程度上制约了Logistic-CA模拟现实城市发展的能力。通过在传统的基于细胞的Logistic-CA中加入基于补丁的模拟策略，我们提出了一种Patch-Logistic-CA来解决这一问题。Patch-Logistic-CA将新的发展区分为自然增长和有机增长，并使用移动窗口方法来模拟城市斑块的演化。通过对2005年至2012年广州市城市发展的模拟，对斑块物流CA进行了检验。基于细胞的Logistic-CA也使用相同的数据集进行了比较。仿真结果表明，Patch-Logistic-CA的细胞级一致性略低于基于细胞的Logistic-CA。然而，目测结果表明，基于单元的Logistic-CA模型不能反映城市增长的实际模式，因为该模型只能模拟初始城市斑块边缘周围的城市化单元。实际上，Patch-Logistic-CA的模式级相似性比基于细胞的Logistic-CA高18%以上。这表明Patch-Logistic-CA比基于细胞的Logistic-CA具有更好的模拟实际开发模式的性能。此外，Patch-Logistic-CA能够正确模拟实际城市发展模式的分形结构。通过改变控制参数，Patch-Logistic-CA也可以通过探索不同的发展方案来辅助城市规划。
Cellular automata (CA) have been used to understand the complexity and dynamics of cities. The logistic cellular automaton (Logistic-CA) is a popular urban CA model for simulating urban growth based on logistic regression. However, this model usually employs a cell-based simulation strategy without considering the spatial evolution of land-use patches. This drawback largely constrains the Logistic-CA for simulating realistic urban development. We proposed a Patch-Logistic-CA to deal with this problem by incorporating a patch-based simulation strategy into the conventional cell-based Logistic-CA. The Patch-Logistic-CA differentiates new developments into spontaneous growth and organic growth, and uses a moving-window approach to simulate the evolution of urban patches. The Patch-Logistic-CA is tested through the simulation of urban growth in Guangzhou, China, during 2005–2012. The cell-based Logistic-CA was also implemented using the same set of data to make a comparison. The simulation results reflect that the Patch-Logistic-CA has slightly lower cell-level agreement than the cell-based Logistic-CA. However, visual inspection of the results reveals that the cell-based Logistic-CA fails to reflect the actual patterns of urban growth, because this model can only simulate urbanized cells around the edges of initial urban patches. Actually, the pattern-level similarities of the Patch-Logistic-CA are over 18% higher than those of the cell-based Logistic-CA. This indicates that the Patch-Logistic-CA has much better performance of simulating actual development patterns than the cell-based Logistic-CA. In addition, the Patch-Logistic-CA can correctly simulate the fractal structure of actual urban development patterns. By varying the control parameters, the Patch-Logistic-CA can also be used to assist urban planning through the exploration of different development alternatives.