Changes of Extreme Sea Level in 1.5 and 2.0°C Warmer Climate Along the Coast of China
Changes of Extreme Sea Level in 1.5 and 2.0°C Warmer Climate Along the Coast of China
复制标题
中国沿海气候变暖1.5℃和2.0℃时极端海平面的变化
DOI：
10.3389/feart.2018.00216
复制
发表时间：
2018-11-27
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Liu, Kexiu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Jianlong;Li, Huan;Liu, Kexiu
利用中国沿海15个验潮站的每小时海平面数据和耦合模式比对项目第五期（CMIP5）的3次模拟海平面数据，我们评估了将升温限制在1.5摄氏度而不是2.0摄氏度的极端海平面的变化和效益。观测结果表明，过去几十年来中国沿海极端海平面以高置信度上升，而平均海平面变化，特别是长期变化 在极端海平面变化过程中发挥着重要作用。在升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下，未来海平面将出现波动上升，极端海平面回归水平也将出现波动。与增温1.5℃条件相比，增温2.0℃条件下中国沿海各测潮站的回波水平将显着上升。研究结果表明，气温升高0.5℃将给中国沿海极端海平面带来较大差异。 《巴黎气候协定》提出将人为升温限制在1.5℃而不是2.0℃非常有必要，这将大大降低中国沿海未来洪水灾害的潜在风险，有利于风险应对管理。
Using hourly sea level data from 15 tide gauges along the Chinese coast and sea level data of three simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we assessed the changes and benefits of the extreme sea level of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2.0 degrees C. Observations show that the extreme sea level has risen with high confidence during the past decades along the coast of China, while the mean sea level change, especially the long-term change plays important roles in the changing process of extreme sea levels. Under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios, the sea level will rise with fluctuations in the future, so will the return levels of the extreme sea levels. Compared with the 1.5 degrees C warming condition, the return levels under the 2.0 degrees C warming condition will rise significantly at all tide gauges along the Chinese coast. The results indicate that a 0.5 degrees C warming will bring much difference to the extreme sea levels along the coast of China. It is of great necessity to limit anthropogenic warming to 1.5 degrees C rather than 2.0 degrees C, as proposed by the Paris Climate Agreement, which will greatly reduce the potential risks of future flood disasters along the coast of China and is beneficial for risk response management.