Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?
Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00557.x
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Casterline, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bongaarts, John;Casterline, John
2005-10 年，撒哈拉以南非洲（“非洲”）的生育率为每名妇女生育 5.1 个孩子（联合国，2011 年），是更替水平的两倍多。高生育率加上死亡率下降导致人口快速增长（每年 2.5%），联合国预计撒哈拉以南地区人口将从 2010 年的 8.6 亿增长到 2050 年的 19.6 亿，到 2100 年将达到 33.6 亿。人口数量空前的增长带来了一系列社会、经济和环境挑战，使非洲大陆提高生活水平变得更加困难。因此，政策制定者对非洲人口趋势的兴趣日益浓厚。根据传统人口理论，人口转型早期阶段的高生育率是高理想家庭规模的结果。夫妇们希望有很多孩子来协助家庭事业，例如务农，并为晚年提供保障。此外，儿童死亡率高导致父母生育更多的孩子以防止损失或替代损失。一旦城市化和教育水平的提高、经济的变化以及死亡率的下降导致父母希望减少生育数量，生育率就会下降。为了实现这些愿望，父母依靠避孕或堕胎，许多国家的计划生育计划加速了这些愿望的实现（Notestein 1945；Easterlin 1975、1978；Lee 和 Bulatao 1983）。
Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa (“Africa”) stood at 5.1 births per woman in 2005–10 (United Nations 2011), more than double the replacement level. This high fertility combined with declining mortality has resulted in rapid population growth—2.5 percent per year—and the UN projects the sub-Saharan population to grow from 0.86 billion in 2010 to 1.96 billion in 2050 and 3.36 billion in 2100. Such unprecedented expansion of human numbers creates a range of social, economic, and environmental challenges and makes it more difficult for the continent to raise living standards. Hence the growing interest in demographic trends in Africa among policymakers.According to conventional demographic theory, high fertility in the early stages of the demographic transition is the consequence of high desired family size. Couples want many children to assist with family enterprises such as farming and for security in old age. In addition, high child mortality leads parents to have additional children to protect against loss or to replace losses. Fertility decline occurs once rising levels of urbanization and education, changes in the economy, and declining mortality lead parents to desire a smaller number of births. To implement these desires, parents rely on contraception or abortion, and family planning programs in many countries accelerate their adoption (Notestein 1945; Easterlin 1975, 1978; Lee and Bulatao 1983).