MOSAICC: An inter-disciplinary system of models to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture
MOSAICC: An inter-disciplinary system of models to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture
复制标题
MOSAICC：评估气候变化对农业影响的跨学科模型系统
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
O. Rojas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Poortinga;F. Delobel;O. Rojas
摘要气候变化可能威胁到许多依赖当地粮食生产的人的生计。来自不同学科的信息已成为估计和预测气候变化对当地粮食生产影响的关键。然而，数据往往是分散的，具体集中在一个科学领域。因此，粮农组织与欧洲研究机构合作开发了一个基于网络的互动工具箱(称为MOSAICC)，它将气候情景与作物生长模拟、水文模型和国家经济预测相结合。在工具箱的第一个(Alfa)版本中，所有模型在输入和输出方面都是相互连接的，并且可以通过Web界面访问。之所以选择这些模型，是因为它们的通用性和对数据的要求较低。然而，工具箱需要测试，因为并不是所有关于模型使用和集成的问题都已经解决了。整个项目的真正创新之处在于，在不同用户的互动学习过程中，对特定领域的信息进行社会-技术整合和情境化。该工具箱应被视为所有利益攸关方(如科学家、政策制定者和平民)都可使用的共同知识库，是关于土地利用规划或气候缓解措施等互动、参与性和跨学科决策进程的组成部分。因此，MOSAICC工具箱是一个新颖、灵活和多功能的适应性管理支持系统，将最先进的技术与旨在增强能力和参与的技术相结合。
ABSTRACT Climate change potentially threatens the livelihood of many people who depend on local food production. Information from different disciplines has become an essential to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on local food production. However, data is often scattered and specifically focused on one scientific domain. Therefore, the FAO in partnership with European research institutes developed a web-based interactive toolbox (called MOSAICC) which integrates climate scenarios with crop growth simulations, hydrological modeling and economic predictions on a national level. In the first (alfa) version of the toolbox, all models are interconnected in terms of input and output, and can be accessed through a web interface. The models are chosen because of their generic nature and low data requirements. However, the toolbox needs testing, as not all questions regarding the model use and integration have been addressed yet. The real innovation of the overall project lies in the socio-technical integration and contextualization of domain-specific information in an interactive learning process of the different users. The toolbox should be regarded as a common pool of knowledge, accessible by all stakeholders (e.g. scientists, policy makers and civilians) as an integral part of an interactive, participative and interdisciplinary decision making process regarding e.g. land-use planning or climate mitigation measures. Therefore, the MOSAICC toolbox is a novel, agile and versatile adaptive management support systems, combining state-of-the-art technologies with aimed at empowerment and participation.