Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa
Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa
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DOI：
10.1097/qad.0b013e32832faf61
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发表时间：
2009-09-10
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Salemi, Marco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gray, Rebecca R.;Tatem, Andrew J.;Salemi, Marco
设计：我们试图调查HIV-1在早期流行中不同流行病学模式的进化和历史原因。为了描述东非HIV-1 A和D亚型的人口统计历史，我们检查了分子流行病学、地理和历史数据。方法：我们采用高分辨率系统动力学来调查HIV-1 A和D进入东非的情况、病毒传播的地理趋势以及每个亚型的人口增长。我们还使用地理信息系统数据来调查人类迁移趋势，人口增长，和人类mobility.Results：HIV-1A和D被引入到东非1950年后，在20世纪70年代呈指数级传播，同时向东扩张。时空数据未能解释艾滋病毒的建立和传播的基础上，城市人口增长和迁移。然而，在大流行出现之前和之后，刚果民主共和国的病毒流行率较低，这与区域可及性数据一致，突出表明中部非洲主要人口中心之间的旅行困难。相比之下，整个东非地区的人口中心之间的强大的互联性，因为殖民时代可能促进了快速增长的流行病在这个location.Conclusion：这项研究说明了如何通过地理空间数据的病原体的动态分析可以提供一个更全面的和基于证据的解释过去的流行病。我们主张，这种“景观生态动力学”的方法有可能提供一个框架，了解流行病的传播和设计最佳的干预策略。(C)2009年威科健康|利平科特威廉姆斯&威尔金斯
Design: We sought to investigate the evolutionary and historical reasons for the different epidemiological patterns of HIV-1 in the early epidemic. In order to characterize the demographic history of HIV-1 subtypes A and D in east Africa, we examined molecular epidemiology,geographical and historical data.Methodology: We employed high-resolution phylodynamics to investigate the introduction of HIV-1 A and D into east Africa, the geographic trends of viral spread, and the demographic growth of each subtype. We also used geographic information system data to investigate human migration trends, population growth, and human mobility.Results: HIV-1A and D were introduced into east Africa after 1950 and spread exponentially during the 1970s, concurrent with eastward expansion. Spatiotemporal data failed to explain the establishment and spread of HIV based on urban population growth and migration. The low prevalence of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo before and after the emergence of the pandemic was, however, consistent with regional accessibility data, highlighting the difficulty in travel between major population centers in central Africa. In contrast, the strong interconnectivity between population centers across the east African region since colonial times has likely fostered the rapid growth of the epidemic in this locale.Conclusion: This study illustrates how phylodynamic analysis of pathogens informed by geospatial data can provide a more holistic and evidence-based interpretation of past epidemics. We advocate that this 'landscape phylodynamics' approach has the potential to provide a framework both to understand epidemics' spread and to design optimal intervention strategies. (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins