Storm surge and "certain death": Interviews with Texas coastal residents following Hurricane Ike
Storm surge and "certain death": Interviews with Texas coastal residents following Hurricane Ike
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风暴潮和“一定的死亡”：艾克飓风过后对德克萨斯州沿海居民的采访
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Hayden
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Morss;M. Hayden
飓风艾克于2008年9月13日在德克萨斯州的加尔维斯顿附近登陆，当时的强度为大型二级风暴，并引发了严重的风暴潮和洪灾。本文介绍了德克萨斯州沿海居民对飓风风险的看法，保护性决策以及与飓风艾克相关的飓风预报意见的实证案例研究结果。结果基于对49名受飓风艾克影响的居民的采访数据，采访是在飓风艾克登陆后大约五周进行的。虽然大多数受访者都知道艾克有潜在的危险，但许多人对飓风造成的沿海洪水和由此造成的损失感到惊讶。对于许多甚至是长期居住的人来说，艾克是一次学习的经历。随着飓风的临近，受访者及其家庭做出了复杂、不断变化的准备和疏散决定。虽然疏散令是一些受访者的重要考虑因素，但许多人经常从多个来源获得有关艾克的信息，以评估自己的风险并做出保护性决定。考虑到艾克造成的风暴潮和破坏，一些受访者认为艾克在萨菲尔-辛普森等级上的分类并没有充分传达艾克造成的风险。国家气象局发布的“必死无疑”的声明帮助说服了几名受访者撤离。然而，其他人对该声明持强烈负面看法，这可能会对他们对未来警告的解释和反应产生负面影响。正如这些研究结果所表明的那样，对目标受众如何获得、解释和使用飓风预报和警报的实证研究提供了有价值的知识，可以帮助设计更有效的方式来传达飓风风险。
Hurricane Ike made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on 13 September 2008 as a large category 2 storm that generated significant storm surge and flooding. This article presents findings from an empirical case study of Texas coastal residents’ perceptions of hurricane risk, protective decision making, and opinions of hurricane forecasts related to Hurricane Ike. The results are based on data from interviews with 49 residents affected by Hurricane Ike, conducted approximately five weeks after landfall. While most interviewees were aware that Ike was potentially dangerous, many were surprised by how much coastal flooding the hurricane caused and the resulting damage. For many—even long-time residents—Ike was a learning experience. As the hurricane approached, interviewees and their households made complex, evolving preparation and evacuation decisions. Although evacuation orders were an important consideration for some interviewees, many obtained information about Ike frequently from multiple sources to evaluate their own risk and make protective decisions. Given the storm surge and damage Ike caused, a number of interviewees believed that Ike’s classification on the Saffir‐Simpson scale did not adequately communicate the risk Ike posed. The ‘‘certain death’’ statement issued by the National Weather Service helped convince several interviewees to evacuate. However, others had strong negative opinions of the statement that may negatively influence their interpretation of and response to future warnings. As these findings indicate, empirical studies of how intended audiences obtain, interpret, and use hurricane forecasts and warnings provide valuable knowledge that can help design more effective ways to convey hurricane risk.