Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C
Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z
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发表时间：
2021-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Haigh, Ivan D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Sally;Jenkins, Katie;Haigh, Ivan D.
即使采取严格的气候变化减缓措施，海平面仍将上升。缓解措施将减缓上升速度。关于沿海保护成本如何随着 1.5 至 4.0 摄氏度的替代全球变暖水平而变化的知识有限。本文分析了这些变暖水平的六种海平面上升情景（0.74 至 1.09 m，第 50 个百分位）以及五种共享社会经济路径，使用动态交互式脆弱性评估 (DIVA) 建模框架量化了海平面上升导致的洪水和保护的经济成本。结果显示了世界银行收入组和五个选定国家从现在到 2100 年的结果。在没有额外适应的情况下，每年的海洪损害成本更多地受到社会经济发展的影响，而不是海平面上升的影响，这表明有机会通过发展选择来控制风险。相比之下，每年的海堤投资成本更多地取决于海平面上升的幅度。就适应总成本而言，与高收入群体相比，中上层、中低层和低收入群体的相对成本占GDP的比例预计更高。如果低收入国家现在就采取保护措施，2050 年及以后洪水造成的损失可能会降低。然而，如果不进一步适应，它们的海岸将面临越来越大的风险和成本，使它们越来越依赖应急响应措施。如果不采取缓解或适应措施，收入群体之间的损害成本可能会出现更大的不平等。在国家层面，如果海平面上升约 0.2 m，在不进行额外适应的情况下，每年的海洪损失预计将迅速增加，从而导致规划和适应的时间有限。
Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 degrees C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.