Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels
Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels
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DOI：
10.1038/nature18608
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发表时间：
2016-07-14
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Wanless, Sarah
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thackeray, Stephen J.;Henrys, Peter A.;Wanless, Sarah
物种间物候对气候变化反应的差异会破坏生态相互作用，从而威胁生态系统功能。为了评估这些威胁，我们必须量化气候变化对不同营养级物种的相对影响。在这里，我们将气候敏感性剖面方法应用于10，003个陆地和水生物候数据集，在空间上与温度和降水数据相匹配，以量化气候敏感性的变化。气候敏感性的方向、幅度和时间在分类和营养组内的生物体之间有显著差异。尽管存在这种变异，我们还是检测到了物候气候敏感性的方向和幅度的系统性变化。二次消费者对气候的敏感性始终低于其他群体。我们使用本世纪中叶的气候变化预测来估计，主要消费者的物候事件的时间可能比其他营养级物种的变化更大（平均提前6.2天，而平均提前2.5-2.9天），分类差异很大（平均提前1.1-14.8天）。
Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).