Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record
Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0802597105
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发表时间：
2008-08-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Alroy, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alroy, John
整个学科的努力，数据库的化石记录在发生的水平，使人们有可能估计海洋无脊椎动物灭绝和起源速度更准确。新的数据表明，在过去的5亿年里，两种生物机制加速了大规模灭绝的恢复，并将多样性限制在相对狭窄的范围内。首先，任何规模的多样性下降都与随后的低灭绝率相关，以至于如果多样性下降90%，灭绝几乎会停止。第二，非常高的灭绝率之后是同样高的起源率。这两个关系预测，从目前的大灭绝反弹将需要至少1000万年，也许4000万年，如果它与二叠纪-三叠纪灾难相媲美。无论如何，任何大型事件都会导致生物圈的生态和分类学重组。这些数据还证实，灭绝和起源率都下降，通过中生代，除了二叠纪-三叠纪事件的几个灭绝特别严重。然而，这一趋势可能是由分类学偏差驱动的，并且速率的变化雅阁简单的对数正态分布，因此背景灭绝和大规模灭绝之间没有明显的区别。此外，缺乏任何显着的自相关的数据是不符合宏观进化理论的周期性或自组织临界性。
The discipline-wide effort to database the fossil record at the occurrence level has made it possible to estimate marine invertebrate extinction and origination rates with much greater accuracy. The new data show that two biotic mechanisms have hastened recoveries from mass extinctions and confined diversity to a relatively narrow range over the past 500 million years (Myr). First, a drop in diversity of any size correlates with low extinction rates immediately afterward, so much so that extinction would almost come to a halt if diversity dropped by 90%. Second, very high extinction rates are followed by equally high origination rates. The two relationships predict that the rebound from the current mass extinction will take at least 10 Myr, and perhaps 40 Myr if it rivals the Permo-Triassic catastrophe. Regardless, any large event will result in a dramatic ecological and taxonomic restructuring of the biosphere. The data also confirm that extinction and origination rates both declined through the Phanerozoic and that several extinctions in addition to the Permo-Triassic event were particularly severe. However, the trend may be driven by taxonomic biases and the rates vary in accord with a simple log normal distribution, so there is no sharp distinction between background and mass extinctions. Furthermore, the lack of any significant autocorrelation in the data is inconsistent with macroevolutionary theories of periodicity or self-organized criticality.