THE POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE UK OF AN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
THE POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE UK OF AN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
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DOI：
10.1002/hec.1554
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Smith, Richard D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keogh-Brown, Marcus R.;Wren-Lewis, Simon;Smith, Richard D.
关于流感大流行对一个国家的经济可能产生的影响知之甚少我们将英国宏观经济模型“COMPACT”应用于英国以前流感大流行的流行病学数据，并推断敏感性分析，以涵盖更极端的疾病情景分析师认为，1957年或1968年流感大流行的重演对经济的影响。如果考虑到学校关闭，将是短暂的，在第一个大流行季度和第一年分别造成国内生产总值的3.35%和0.58%的损失。更严重的情况（超过1%的人口死亡）可能产生21%和4.5%的影响。当缺勤率上升时，（通过学校关闭）增加超过几个星期，对流感大流行规划产生政策影响，因为最严重的经济影响是由于控制大流行的政策，而不是大流行本身考虑到为避免感染而改变的消费模式，潜在影响是我们的轻度疾病情景显示第一季度/第一年GDP减少9 5/2.5%，而我们的严重情景减少29 5/6%。这些结果清楚地表明了行为变化对疾病参数的重要性。版权所有（C）2009约翰威利父子有限公司
Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios Analysts suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics. allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0 58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4 5%. respectively The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itselfAccounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9 5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29 5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd