Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model
Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model
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概率洪水风险模型中的不确定性来源
作者：
Benjamin Winter;Klaus Schneeberger;M. Huttenlau;J. Stötter
洪水风险模型捕获了各种过程并与很大的不确定性相关。本文分析了福拉尔贝格州（奥地利）研究区概率洪水风险模型的各个组成部分由于替代模型假设而产生的不确定性。将不同模型假设在五个方面的效果与参考模拟进行了比较。这包括：（I，II）选择两个模型阈值来控制大量可能的洪水事件的生成； (III) 选择洪水频率分析的分布函数； (IV) 用于暴露分析的建筑物表示和水位推导以及 (V) 选择适当的损坏函数。分析表明，每个测试方面都有可能显着改变建模结果。结果范围从 1.2 到 3，从最低值到最高值，其中损伤函数的选择对整体建模结果影响最大。
Flood risk models capture a variety of processes and are associated with large uncertainties. In this paper, the uncertainties due to alternative model assumptions are analysed for various components of a probabilistic flood risk model in the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). The effect of different model assumptions for five aspects is compared to a reference simulation. This includes: (I, II) the selection of two model thresholds controlling the generation of large sets of possible flood events; (III) the selection of a distribution function for the flood frequency analysis; (IV) the building representation and water level derivation for the exposure analysis and (V) the selection of an appropriate damage function. The analysis shows that each of the tested aspects has the potential to alter the modelling results considerably. The results range from a factor of 1.2 to 3, from the lowest to highest value, whereby the selection of the damage function has the largest effect on the overall modelling results.