HAVE DISASTER LOSSES INCREASED DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE?
HAVE DISASTER LOSSES INCREASED DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE?
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DOI：
10.1175/2010bams3092.1
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Bouwer, Laurens M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bouwer, Laurens M.
人为气候变化是否增加了灾害损失？近几十年来，自然灾害的影响越来越大，特别是直接经济损失和投保的损失，这一点已有详细记录。一些人声称气候变化造成了更多的损失，但另一些人则认为人口和经济增长造成的风险增加是一个更重要的驱动因素。今天存在着模糊不清的情况，因为主要的科学评估没有系统地处理气候变化与灾害损失之间的因果关系。在这里，作者提出了一个回顾和分析最近的定量研究在过去的天气灾害损失的增加和人为气候变化的作用。分析表明，虽然与天气有关的灾害造成的经济损失有所增加，但迄今为止，人为气候变化对自然灾害造成的损失没有产生重大影响。观察到的损失增加主要是由于风险敞口和风险资本价值增加所致。这一发现对于研究极端天气的影响和灾害政策具有直接重要性。预测未来损失的研究可能比分析历史损失更能说明气候变化对灾害损失的潜在影响和适应需要。(Page第三十九章）
HAVE DISASTER LOSSES INCREASED BECAUSE OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE?The increasing impact of natural disasters over recent decades has been well documented, especially the direct economic losses and losses that were insured. Claims are made by some that climate change has caused more losses, but others assert that increasing exposure due to population and economic growth has been a much more important driver. Ambiguity exists today, because the causal link between climate change and disaster losses has not been addressed in a systematic manner by major scientific assessments. Here, the author presents a review and analysis of recent quantitative studies on past increases in weather disaster losses and the role of anthropogenic climate change. Analyses show that, although economic losses from weather-related hazards have increased, anthropogenic climate change so far did not have a significant impact on losses from natural disasters. The observed loss increase is caused primarily by increasing exposure and value of capital at risk. This finding is of direct importance for studies on impacts from extreme weather and for disaster policy. Studies that project future losses may give a better indication of the potential impact of climate change on disaster losses and needs for adaptation than the analysis of historical losses. (Page 39)