Quantitative impact assessment of the 2019 tropical cyclone Kammuri lahars: Mayon volcano, Philippines
Quantitative impact assessment of the 2019 tropical cyclone Kammuri lahars: Mayon volcano, Philippines
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2019 年热带气旋 Kammuri 火山泥浆的定量影响评估：菲律宾马荣火山
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103779
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Bautista M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bautista M
由于强降雨和长时间的降雨，火山泥石流在菲律宾活火山附近的社区中经常发生。马荣火山是菲律宾最活跃的火山，喷出的火山碎屑沉积物可作为火山灰的侵蚀材料。过去曾发生过破坏性的拉哈尔火山，最近的几次发生在2006年、2015年、2019年和2020年，对低洼地区造成了侵蚀、掩埋和山洪暴发等影响。本文介绍了对马荣火山选定的试点社区进行的关于火山灰影响评估的跨学科案例研究的结果。使用名为REDAS快速拉哈尔影响模拟工具(REDAS-QLIST)的拉哈尔影响评估软件工具，将拉哈尔危害建模、暴露数据库和菲律宾化拉哈尔破坏状态表结合起来，以评估研究区域对建筑物的潜在拉哈尔影响。该工具可以估计泥炭损失，如物质损失、经济损失和受影响的总人口，包括年龄-性别分布。能够准确地量化影响和损害是REDAS-QLIST提供的附加值之一。使用2019年热带气旋(TC)KamMuri的实际Lahar事件情景对我们的案例研究区域产生的损害和损失估计进行了测试。利益攸关方，特别是来自地方政府单位的利益攸关方，可以利用提出的方法和结果，在其社区规划和应用适应性和可持续的减少灾害风险方案。重要的是，该方法可以与REDAS QLIST的其他火山岩模拟结果和暴露数据一起使用，以评估菲律宾其他火山区的危险和损失。
Lahars (volcanic mudflows) are frequent occurrences in communities near active Philippine volcanoes due to intense and prolonged rainfall. Mayon Volcano is the most active volcano in the Philippines, ejecting pyroclastic deposits that serve as erodible materials for lahars. Damaging lahars have occurred in the past, with the more recent ones in 2006, 2015, 2019 and 2020 posing impacts such as erosion, burial, and flash flooding in low-lying areas. This paper presents the results of an interdisciplinary case study on lahar impact assessment for a selected pilot community at Mayon Volcano. Lahar hazard modeling, an exposure database, and a Filipinized lahar damage state table were combined to estimate potential lahar impacts to buildings for the study area using a lahar impact assessment software tool called REDAS Quick Lahar Impact Simulation Tool (REDAS-QLIST). The tool can estimate lahar losses such as physical damage, economic loss, and total population affected including age-sex distribution. Being able to accurately quantify impact and damage is one of the added values provided by REDAS-QLIST. The damage and loss estimates produced for our case study area were tested using an actual lahar event scenario from Tropical Cyclone (TC)Kammuriin 2019. Stakeholders, especially from local government units, can utilize the methods and results presented to plan and apply adaptable and sustainable disaster risk reduction programs in their communities. Importantly, the methodology can be used with additional lahar modeling results and exposure data through the REDAS QLIST to assess hazard and loss for other volcanic regions in the Philippines.