Potential health benefits of sustained air quality improvements in New York City: A simulation based on air pollution levels during the COVID-19 shutdown.
Potential health benefits of sustained air quality improvements in New York City: A simulation based on air pollution levels during the COVID-19 shutdown.
复制标题
纽约市空气质量持续改善的潜在健康益处：基于 COVID-19 关闭期间空气污染水平的模拟。
DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2020.110555
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Matte,Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Perera,Frederica;Berberian,Alique;Cooley,David;Shenaut,Elizabeth;Olmstead,Hollie;Ross,Zev;Matte,Thomas
在 COVID-19 封锁期间（2020 年 3 月 15 日至 2020 年 5 月 15 日），纽约市 (NYC) 的空气污染急剧下降，尽管社会和经济成本很高。它提供了一个独特的机会来模拟关闭期间全市空气质量改善在 2021 年至 2025 年五年期间持续改善的情景，使我们能够估计对儿童和成人的潜在公共健康益处及其相关的经济效益。我们重点关注细颗粒物 (PM2.5)，并模拟了未来对儿童和成人的潜在健康益处。该分析考虑了清洁空气效益评估中通常未考虑的儿童结局，包括早产、足月低出生体重、婴儿死亡率、儿童哮喘发病率、儿童哮喘住院和急诊就诊、自闭症谱系障碍以及成人死亡率。我们估计，与 2015-2018 年（一切照常期间）几个月的平均水平相比，在 COVID-19 关闭期间，全市 PM2.5 水平下降了 23%。根据2020年的数据，我们推断出未来五年的环境PM2.5水平。预计 2021 年至 2025 年的累计效益包括避免数千例疾病和死亡病例，相关经济效益从 318 亿美元到 770 亿美元不等。这一“自然实验”虽然起因悲惨，但提供了一个假设的清洁空气情景，可以被视为理想的情景，可以通过交通、气候和环境政策来实现，这些政策支持强劲的经济复苏，同时减少排放。
New York City (NYC) experienced a sharp decline in air pollution during the COVID-19 shutdown period (March 15, 2020 to May 15, 2020)—albeit at high social and economic costs. It provided a unique opportunity to simulate a scenario in which the city-wide air quality improvement during the shutdown were sustained over the five-year period, 2021 through 2025, allowing us to estimate the potential public health benefits to children and adults and their associated economic benefits.We focused on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and modeled potential future health benefits to children and adults. The analysis considered outcomes in children that have not generally been accounted for in clean air benefits assessments, including preterm birth, term low birthweight, infant mortality, child asthma incidence, child asthma hospital admissions and emergency department visits, autism spectrum disorder, as well as adult mortality.We estimated a city-wide 23% improvement in PM2.5levels during the COVID-19 shutdown months compared to the average level for those months in 2015–2018 (the business as usual period). Based on the data for 2020, we extrapolated the ambient levels of PM2.5for the following five-year period. The estimated cumulative benefits for 2021–2025 included thousands of avoided cases of illness and death, with associated economic benefits from $31.8 billion to $77 billion.This “natural experiment,” tragic though the cause, has provided a hypothetical clean air scenario that can be considered aspirational—one that could be achieved through transportation, climate, and environmental policies that support robust economic recovery with similarly reduced emissions.