Large-Scale Atmospheric Dispersal Simulations Identify Likely Airborne Incursion Routes of Wheat Stem Rust Into Ethiopia.
Large-Scale Atmospheric Dispersal Simulations Identify Likely Airborne Incursion Routes of Wheat Stem Rust Into Ethiopia.
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大规模大气扩散模拟确定了小麦茎锈病可能通过空气侵入埃塞俄比亚的路线。
DOI：
10.1094/phyto-01-17-0035-fi
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Christopher A. Gilligan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Meyer;Laura Burgin;Matthew Hort;David Hodson;Christopher A. Gilligan
近年来，撒哈拉以南非洲最大的小麦生产国埃塞俄比亚遭受了严重的小麦秆锈病流行。这些病害是由小麦锈菌小种TKTTF（Digalu小种）引起的。在埃塞俄比亚，于2012年8月初首次发现了这种细菌。我们使用这种新的病原体种族的入侵作为案例研究，以确定可能的空气传播的真菌孢子的起源在区域和大陆尺度的拉格朗日粒子扩散模型（LPDM）。两种不同的技术，LPDM模拟向前和向后的时间，进行了比较。在时间回溯模拟中，释放高度的影响和P。分析了时间正演模拟中的三孢夏孢子生存力函数。结果表明，也门是最有可能的来源，但也指出了中东和东非大裂谷的其他可能来源。根据埃塞俄比亚和其他国家TKTTF分离株的现有实地调查和系统发育数据，这是合理的。独立的情况下，涉及TKTTF，我们评估长期的扩散趋势（>10年），以获得外来的风险的定量估计。在小麦季节的不同月份，在潜在来源国发生疾病爆发的不同“假设”情景下，将小麦赤霉病菌孢子（任何种族）运输到埃塞俄比亚。
In recent years, severe wheat stem rust epidemics hit Ethiopia, sub-Saharan Africa's largest wheat-producing country. These were caused by race TKTTF (Digalu race) of the pathogen Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, which, in Ethiopia, was first detected at the beginning of August 2012. We use the incursion of this new pathogen race as a case study to determine likely airborne origins of fungal spores on regional and continental scales by means of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM). Two different techniques, LPDM simulations forward and backward in time, are compared. The effects of release altitudes in time-backward simulations and P. graminis f. sp. tritici urediniospore viability functions in time-forward simulations are analyzed. Results suggest Yemen as the most likely origin but, also, point to other possible sources in the Middle East and the East African Rift Valley. This is plausible in light of available field surveys and phylogenetic data on TKTTF isolates from Ethiopia and other countries. Independent of the case involving TKTTF, we assess long-term dispersal trends (>10 years) to obtain quantitative estimates of the risk of exotic P. graminis f. sp. tritici spore transport (of any race) into Ethiopia for different 'what-if' scenarios of disease outbreaks in potential source countries in different months of the wheat season.
2010 年埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖喷发远端火山云中火山灰浓度的业务预测
DOI：
10.1029/2011jd016790
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
Atmospheres
影响因子：
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作者：
Webster H
通讯作者：
Webster H