Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas
Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2035
复制
发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Pearce-Higgins, JamesW.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johnston, Alison;Ausden, Malcolm;Pearce-Higgins, JamesW.
物种对气候变化反应的动态性和多样性给制定强有力的长期保护战略带来了重大困难。一个关键问题是现有的保护区网络是否会在不断变化的气候中保持有效。为了验证这一点，我们开发了统计模型，将气候与欧洲西北部国际重要鸟类种群的丰度联系起来。空间气候-丰度模型能够预测近30年来种群趋势变化的56%。使用这些模型，未来气候变化导致全球变暖4.0摄氏度，预计将导致超过一半的国际重要人口下降至少25%。尽管如此，英国的大多数欧盟特别保护区预计将保留足够丰富的物种，以维持其法律的地位，一般来说，现在重要的地点预计在未来也很重要。这一保护区网络的生物和法律的复原力来自于每个地点重要物种的周转能力，因为物种的分布和丰度因气候而改变。因此，预计目前的保护区在气候变化的情况下对未来的保护仍然很重要。
The dynamic nature and diversity of species' responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate-abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0 degrees C global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species' distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate.